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Monetary policy and supply-side turnover

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  • Adam, Klaus
  • Weber, Henning

Abstract

The introduction of a firm or product life cycle into New Keynesian frameworks fundamentally alters the design of optimal monetary policy. Economic welfare and the Phillips curve then depend on the gap between inflation and a time-varying inflation target that arises endogenously from turnover. The inflation target is positive on average and shifts in response to productivity disturbances. As a result, steady-state price stability is no longer desirable and the dynamics make it optimal for monetary policy to "look through" certain productivity disturbances. The latter requires keeping nominal rates unchanged even though both output and inflation move. This complicates the empirical distinction between supply, demand, and policy shocks. Our results highlight that accounting for supply side turnover delivers a rich set of policy-relevant results for inflation targeting and shock identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Klaus & Weber, Henning, 2026. "Monetary policy and supply-side turnover," Discussion Papers 04/2026, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:337464
    DOI: 10.71734/DP-2026-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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