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Trend inflation meets macro-finance: the puzzling behavior of price dispersion

Author

Listed:
  • Lorant Kaszab

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business; Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Ales Marsal

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business; National Bank of Slovakia)

  • Katrin Rabitsch

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

Motivated by recent empirical findings that emphasize low-frequency movements in inflation as a key determinant of term structure, we introduce trend inflation into the workhorse macro-finance model. We show that this compromises the earlier model success and delivers implausible business cycle and bond price dynamics. We document that this result applies more generally to non-linearly solved models with Calvo pricing and trend inflation and is driven by the behavior of price dispersion, which is i) counterfactually high and ii) highly inaccurately approximated. We highlight the channels behind the undesired performance under trend inflation and propose several remedies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch, 2020. "Trend inflation meets macro-finance: the puzzling behavior of price dispersion," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp304, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Iania, Leonardo & Tretiakov, Pavel & Wouters, Rafael, 2023. "The risk premium in New Keynesian DSGE models: The cost of inflation channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp350, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trend inflation; Calvo pricing; price dispersion; macro-finance; non-linear solution methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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