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Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area

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  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry
  • Müller, Gernot
  • Wolf, Martin

Abstract

During the post-crisis period, economic performance has been highly heterogenous across the euro area. While some economies rebounded quickly after the 2009 output collapse, others are undergoing a protracted further decline as part of an extensive deleveraging process. At the same time, inflation has been subdued throughout the whole of the euro area and intra-euro-area exchange rates have hardly moved. We interpret these facts through the lens of a two-country model of a currency union. We find that deleveraging in one country generates deflationary spillovers which cannot be contained by monetary policy, as it becomes constrained by the zero lower bound. As a result, the real exchange rate response becomes muted, and the output collapse---concentrated in the deleveraging economies.

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  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Müller, Gernot & Wolf, Martin, 2015. "Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 11015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11015
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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    2. Albonico, Alice & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2020. "Financial crises and sudden stops: Was the European monetary union crisis different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 13-26.
    3. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Guilherme Bandeira & Evi Pappa & Rana Sajedi & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Low-Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 7-52, June.
    5. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    6. Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers 331, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 11 Mar 2016.
    7. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Martin Wolf, 2018. "Optimal Prudential Policy in Economies with Downward Wage Rigidity," Vienna Economics Papers 1804, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency union; deflationary spillovers; deleveraging; downward wage rigidity; paradox of flexibility; real exchange rate; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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