IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-driven Business Cycles

  • Christopher M. Gunn
  • Alok Johri

What is the effect of the fear of future sovereign default on the economy of the defaulting country? The typical sovereign default model does not address this question. In this paper we wish to explore the possibility that changing expectations about future default themselves can lead to financial stress (as measured by credit spreads) and recessionary outcomes. We exploit the "news-shock" framework to consider an environment in which sovereign debt-holders receive imperfect signals about the portion of debt that a sovereign may default on in the future. We then investigate how domestic banks can play a role in transmitting the expectation of default into a realized recession through the interaction of the domestic banks' holdings of government debt and their risk-weighted capital requirements. Our results suggest that, consistent with the data, even in the absence of actual realized government default, an increase in pessimism regarding the prospect of future default results in a rise in yields on government debt and an increase in interest rates on private domestic loans, as well as a recession in the economy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/2013-08.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2013-08.

as
in new window

Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2013-08
Contact details of provider: Postal: 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4M4
Phone: (905) 525-9140 ext. 22765
Fax: (905) 521-8232
Web page: http://www.economics.mcmaster.ca/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Ricardo Nunes & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 997, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, 09.
  5. Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2014. "Sovereign Defaults and Banking Crises," 2014 Meeting Papers 666, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
  7. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2011. "News, Intermediation Efficiency and Expectations-driven Boom-bust Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-02, McMaster University.
  8. Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2012. "Banks, Sovereign Debt and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 181-213 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
  10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  11. Beaudry, Paul & Dupaigne, Martial & Portier, Franck, 2009. "Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles," TSE Working Papers 09-117, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Working Paper 08-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  13. Robert Kollmann & Zeno Enders & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Global Banking and International Business Cycles," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-028, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  14. Eric Leeper & Todd Walker, 2011. "Information Flows and News Driven Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 55-71, January.
  15. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
  16. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Global banks, financial shocks and international business cycles: evidence from an estimated model," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 120, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  17. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2009. "News and knowledge capital," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-02, McMaster University.
  18. Vincenzo Quadrini & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crises and Contagion," 2010 Meeting Papers 841, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2014. "Financial Business Cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers 1116, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Silvio Contessi, 2012. "An application of conventional sovereign debt sustainability analysis to the current debt crises," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 197-220.
  21. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2013-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.