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An application of conventional sovereign debt sustainability analysis to the current debt crises

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  • Silvio Contessi

Abstract

The developing international debt crisis has unleashed unanticipated fears that governments in some advanced economies may default on their sovereign debt and trigger a global financial tsunami. This article provides a primer on sovereign debt sustainability and interprets the recent experience of advanced economies in the light of a uniform approach that allows an answer to this question: What are the main factors that contribute to make a country’s debt sustainable or unsustainable?

Suggested Citation

  • Silvio Contessi, 2012. "An application of conventional sovereign debt sustainability analysis to the current debt crises," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 197-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2012:i:may:p:197-220:n:v.94no.3
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    File URL: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/12/05/197-220Contessi.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. repec:fip:fedlar:y:2010:p:4-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Martin, Fernando M. & Waller, Christopher J., 2012. "Sovereign debt: a modern Greek tragedy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 321-340.
    4. Schneider, Friedrich G. & Buehn, Andreas, 2007. "Shadow economies and corruption all over the world: revised estimates for 120 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 1, pages 1-53.
    5. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
    6. Nils Holinski & Clemens J. M. Kool & Joan Muysken, 2012. "Persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area: causes and consequences," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 1-20.
    7. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gunn, Christopher M. & Johri, Alok, 2018. "Financial News, Banks, And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 173-198, March.
    2. Noeth, Bryan J. & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2012. "Global European banks and the financial crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 457-480.
    3. Tielens, J. & van Aarle, B. & Van Hove, J., 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    4. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiová, 2015. "Public Debt Sustainability in Africa: Building Resilience and Challenges Ahead," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 33(5), pages 555-580, September.
    5. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-driven Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-08, McMaster University.
    6. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova, 2015. "Working Paper 227 - Public Debt Sustainability in Africa: Building Resilience and Challenges Ahead," Working Paper Series 2170, African Development Bank.

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    Keywords

    Debt ; Financial crises;

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