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Effects of Eurobonds: a stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece

Author

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  • Joris TIELENS
  • Bas VAN AARLE
  • Jan VAN HOVE

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of Eurobonds on sovereign debt dynamics for selected European member states (Greece, Ireland and Portugal). For each member state, we produce sovereign debt fan charts of (i) a baseline scenario (no Eurobonds) and (ii) a Full-Fledged Eurobond introduction. The key building blocks of our methodology are (i) a debt framework (which embeds the traditional recursive debt equation), (ii) a vector autoregressive model to take into account and parametrise macroeconomic uncertainty and (iii) a fiscal reaction function. Conditional on the absence of moral hazard, we find Eurobonds to be a good instrument to absorb macroeconomic shocks and to diminish uncertainty over future debt forecasts; for Ireland and Portugal, we find debt to be 20 percentage points lower than under our baseline scenario, by 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Joris TIELENS & Bas VAN AARLE & Jan VAN HOVE, 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: a stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces14.10, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    • Handle: RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces14.10
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Cuadra & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Santiago Garcia-Verdu, 2018. "On the role of financial aid in a default episode," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Badarau, Cristina & Huart, Florence & Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2021. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of eurobonds," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Baghdassarian, William & Mele, Gianluca & Pradelli, Juan, 2014. "Assessing public debt sustainability in Mauritania with a stochastic framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7088, The World Bank.
    6. Gabriela Dobrotă & Alina Daniela Voda, 2024. "Stochastic Debt Sustainability Analysis in Romania in the Context of the War in Ukraine," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Greco, Luciano & Pintus, Francesco Jacopo & Raggi, Davide, 2025. "When fiscal discipline meets macroeconomic stability: The Euro-stability bond," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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