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A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data

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  • Marcio Garcia
  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Missale, Alessandro & Giavazzi, Francesco & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. " How Is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 443-469, September.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    3. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
    5. Bevilaqua, Afonso S & Garcia, Marcio G P, 2002. "Debt Management in Brazil: Evaluation of the Real Plan and Challenges Ahead," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 15-35, January.
    6. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2002. "Public debt management, monetary policy and financial institutions," Textos para discussão 464, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    7. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Tatiana Didier, 2000. "Very high interest rates and the cousin risks: Brazil during the Real Plan," Textos para discussão 441, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    8. Márcio gomes Pinto Garcia & Marcus Vinicius Ferrero Valpassos, 1998. "Capital flows, capital controls and currency crisis: the case of Brazil in the nineties," Textos para discussão 389, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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