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Public Debt, Economic Growth, and Public Sector Management in Developing Countries: Is There a Link?

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  • Kelbesa Megersa
  • Danny Cassimon

Abstract

The article investigates whether differences in public sector management quality affect the link between public debt and economic growth in developing countries. For this purpose, we primarily use the World Bank's institutional indices of public sector management (PSM). Using PSM thresholds, we split our panel into country clusters and make comparisons. Our linear baseline regressions reveal a significant negative relationship between public debt and growth. The various robustness exercises that we perform also confirm these results. When we dissect our data set into “weak” and “strong” county clusters using public sector management scores, however, we find different results. While public debt still displayed a negative relationship with growth in countries with “weak” public sector management quality, it generally displayed a positive relationship in the latter group. The tests for non‐linearity shows evidence of an “inverse‐U”‐shape relationship between public debt and economic growth. However, we fail to see a similar significant relationship on country clusters that account for PSM quality. Yet, countries with well‐managed public sectors demonstrate a higher public debt sustainability threshold. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Public Debt, Economic Growth, and Public Sector Management in Developing Countries: Is There a Link?," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 329-346, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:padxxx:v:35:y:2015:i:5:p:329-346
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    1. Michel Krah & Michael Kouadio & Fabrice Anzara, 2026. "Public debt and economic growth in WAEMU countries: evidence on the moderating effect of governance," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Isaac Sánchez-Juárez & Rosa García-Almada, 2016. "Public Debt, Public Investment and Economic Growth in Mexico," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Philipp Aerni, 2016. "Coping with Migration-Induced Urban Growth: Addressing the Blind Spot of UN Habitat," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Megersa, kelbesa & Cassimon, Danny, 2016. "Debt Sustainability and direction of trade: What does Africa’s shifting engagement with BRIC and OECD tells us?," MPRA Paper 76581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Pedersoli, Silvia & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2023. "Public debt management and private financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    6. Howard Haughton & Jodie Keane, 2021. "Alleviating debt distress and advancing the sustainable development goals," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 528-536, May.
    7. Maureen Were & Lorah Madete, 2022. "The link between public debt and public investment in Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-155, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Martins Iyoboyi & Abdullahi Badiru, 2025. "The Influence of Economic Institutions in the Debt-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Nigeria," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 177-195, February.
    9. Abigail Stiglingh & Lerato Mothibi, 2019. "The link between government expenditure and debt as potential drivers of economic growth in South Africa," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912043, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    10. Brou, Jean-Claude Kouakou & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hueber, Olivier, 2025. "Harmonizing public debt and creating convergence clubs in sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(4).
    11. Thobeka Ncanywa & Marius Mamokgaetji Masoga, 2018. "Can public debt stimulate public investment and economic growth in South Africa?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1516483-151, January.
    12. Kushawaha, Deepak & Jain, Manisha, 2025. "Understanding the dynamics of public debt on renewable energy investment in developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    14. Karim Bouchrara & Houssem Rachdi & Khaled Guesmi, 2020. "The Non-Linear Relationship Between Economic Growth and Public Debt," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2336-2343.
    15. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Public Debt–Growth Relationship: The Role of the Expenditure Multiplier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    16. Gabriel Villa & Sebastián Lozano, 2016. "DEA with non-monotonic variables. Application to EU governments’ macroeconomic efficiency," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(12), pages 1510-1523, December.
    17. Aruna Gounder & Priteshni Chand & Avineel Kumar, 2024. "Government Debt and Foreign Aid: Do They Matter for Economic Growth in Small Island Economies? Empirical Evidence from the Pacific Islands," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8327-8348, June.
    18. Mindaugas Butkus & Janina Seputiene, 2018. "Growth Effect of Public Debt: The Role of Government Effectiveness and Trade Balance," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, November.
    19. Appiah-Otoo, Isaac & Chen, Xudong & Appiah, Ebenezer & Ayenyebo, Daniel Kwabla, 2025. "Chinese loans to Africa: A blessing or a curse to Africa’s economic development?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1032-1044.
    20. George Kararach & Jacob Oduor & Edward Sennoga & Walter Odero & Peter Rasmussen & Lacina Balma, 2022. "Working Paper 365 - Public Investment Efficiency, Economic Growth and Debt Sustainability in Africa," Working Paper Series 2491, African Development Bank.
    21. Gautam Negi, 2021. "Fiscal Impulse And Sectoral Output €“ Evidence From Indian States," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 28, pages 151-167, December.
    22. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "A Meta-Analysis on the Debt-Growth Relationship," MPRA Paper 114409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Onuoha, Favour Chidinma & Dimnwobi, Stephen Kelechi & Okere, Kingsley Ikechukwu & Ekesiobi, Chukwunonso, 2023. "Funding the green transition: Governance quality, public debt, and renewable energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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