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Public Debt and Productivity: The Difficult Quest for Growth in Jamaica

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  • Mr. Rodolphe Blavy

Abstract

The paper analyzes Jamaica's experience of low growth despite consistently high investment. Cross-country analysis provides evidence of a significant and negative relationship between total public debt and productivity growth. Looking at the specific channels through which high debt affects productivity growth and the allocation of resources in Jamaica, the study finds that high public debt has been associated with macroeconomic uncertainty and an output structure that relied excessively on a few maturing sectors with limited scope for productivity growth. Furthermore, public investment has been crowded out by debt service, further adversely affecting productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2006. "Public Debt and Productivity: The Difficult Quest for Growth in Jamaica," IMF Working Papers 2006/235, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. -, 2017. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2017: Dynamics of the current economic cycle and policy challenges for boosting investment and growth," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 42002 edited by Eclac.
    2. Bassey Okon Ebi & Imoke Douglas Imoke, 2017. "Public Debt Carrying Capacity and Debt Transmission Channels: The Nigerian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 41-52.
    3. Adel M. EL-MAHDY & Neveen M. TORAYEH, 2009. "Debt Sustainabiliy And Economic Growth In Egypt," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    4. Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Public Debt, Economic Growth, and Public Sector Management in Developing Countries: Is There a Link?," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 329-346, December.
    5. Amal Soliman ElGhouty, 2018. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Egypt," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 8(3), pages 183-200, September.
    6. Shijaku, Gerti, 2014. "Fiscal policy, output and financial stress in the case of developing and emerging European economies: a threshold VAR approach," MPRA Paper 79139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    8. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Prince, Ehsanur Rauf & Shoyeb, Mohammad & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2024. "The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 39-59.
    9. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    10. Mr. Klaus-Stefan Enders, 2007. "Egypt—Searching for Binding Constraints on Growth," IMF Working Papers 2007/057, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Andrew Lewis, 2016. "The Path to Sustainable Development through the Splitting of the Foreign Exchange Reserves," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 6(2), pages 97-102, June.
    12. Nurfilzah Arham & Mohd Shamlie Salisi & Rozita Uji Mohammed & Jasman Tuyon, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic cyclical indicators and country governance on bank non-performing loans in Emerging Asia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 707-726, December.
    13. Naeem AKRAM*, 2017. "Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(2), pages 189-212.
    14. World Bank, 2011. "Jamaica - Country Economic Memorandum : Unlocking Growth," World Bank Publications - Reports 2756, The World Bank Group.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Jamaica: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/198, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Nachiket Bhawe & Shaker A. Zahra, 2019. "Inducing heterogeneity in local entrepreneurial ecosystems: the role of MNEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 437-454, February.
    17. Naeem Akram, 2013. "Empirical examination of debt and growth nexus in South Asian countries," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(2), pages 29-52, December.
    18. Ant Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2014. "Fiscal composition and long-term growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 349-358, January.
    19. Adewale Hassan & Daniel Meyer, 2021. "Exploring the Channels of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    20. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "The Fiscal-Growth Nexus," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    21. Wani, Nassir Ul Haq & Kabir, Habib, 2016. "An evaluation of relationship between public debt and economic growth: A study of Afghanistan," MPRA Paper 75538, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Nov 2016.
    22. Khalil Ahmad & Amun Khalid & Zoya Noor, 2016. "The role of IMF in Pakistan’s economy," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 126-134, September.
    23. Shijaku, Gerti & Gjokuta, Arlind, 2013. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79090, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.

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    Keywords

    WP; investment; Jamaica; GDP; debt;
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