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Fiscal policy, output and financial stress in the case of developing and emerging European economies: a threshold VAR approach

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  • Shijaku, Gerti

Abstract

The aim of this discussion material will be to examine the effects of fiscal developments on economic activity and on the market condition over time. The study employs a threshold vector autoregressive approach for 10 Developing and Emerging Market economies in the Central Eastern and South Eastern European Countries. The financial stress index is constructed by considering a wide range of market patterns, including banking related stress, money market related stress, exchange markets stress and real estate markets related stress, upon which the threshold upon market condition is build. The threshold VAR model allows to analyses this interrelationship during episodes of economic downturn and stress in financial market. Finally, the empirical work considers a structural identification approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Shijaku, Gerti, 2014. "Fiscal policy, output and financial stress in the case of developing and emerging European economies: a threshold VAR approach," MPRA Paper 79139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "Does Primary Sovereignty Risk Matter for Bank Fragility? Evidence from Albanian Banking System," MPRA Paper 79097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gerti Shijaku, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Pass-through Effects of Monetary Policy through Sign Restrictions Approach: In the Case of Albania," IHEID Working Papers 11-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Gerti Shijaku, 2018. "Does Primary Sovereignty Risk Matter for Bank Stability? Evidence from the Albanian Banking System," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 16(2), pages 115-145.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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