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State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Fazzari

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • James Morley

    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

  • Irina Panovska

    () (Rauch Business Center, Lehigh University)

Abstract

We investigate the eects of government spending on U.S. output with a threshold structural vector autoregressive model. We consider Bayesian model comparison and generalized impulse response analysis to test for nonlinearities in the responses of output to government spending. Our empirical ndings support state-dependent eects of scal policy, with the government spending multiplier larger and more persistent whenever there is considerable economic slack. Based on capacity utilization as the preferred threshold variable, the estimated multiplier is large (1.6) for a low-utilization regime that accounts for more than half of the sample observations from 1967-2012 according to the estimated threshold level.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2014. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27C, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2012-27c
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    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2012-27.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hussain, Syed M. & Malik, Samreen, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exogenous Tax Changes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 268-300.
    3. Leila E. Davis & Charalampos Konstantinidis & Yorghos Tripodis, 2017. "A proposal for a federalized unemployment insurance mechanism for Europe," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 92-116, April.
    4. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2015. "Why the Keynesian Multiplier Increases During Hard Times: A Theoretical Explanation Based on Rentiers' Saving Behaviour," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 451-473, July.
    5. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:372-387 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    7. Louis-Philippe Beland & Bulent Unel, 2018. "The impact of party affiliation of US governors on immigrants’ labor market outcomes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 627-670, April.
    8. repec:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:54-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mencinger, Jernej & Aristovnik, Aleksander & Verbič, Miroslav, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 448-461.
    10. Mark Setterfield, 2015. "Time variation in the size of the multiplier: a Kalecki-Harrod approach," Working Papers 1522, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    11. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2016. "Going Up and Down: Rethinking the Empirics of Growth in the Developing and Newly Industrialized World," LEM Papers Series 2016/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Nooman Rebei, 2017. "Evaluating Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Government Spending Shocks," IMF Working Papers 17/49, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 923-944, November.
    15. repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/696277 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Spending; Threshold Model; Vector Autoregression; Nonlinear Dynamics; Impulse-Response Comparison; Bayesian;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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