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State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Fazzari

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • James Morley

    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

  • Irina Panovska

    (Rauch Business Center, Lehigh University)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of government spending on U.S. output with a threshold structural vector autoregressive model. We provide formal comparisons for nonlinearity in the responses of output to government spending and develop a method to compare the difference between impulse response functions across states of the economy. Our empirical findings support state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. The government spending multiplier is larger and more persistent when capacity utilization is low. The estimated multiplier is large (1.6) for more than half of the sample observations, even when the interest rate is not at the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2012-27b
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    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2012-27.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Dynamic Panels," Working Papers 1304, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. Emily Anderson & Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1877-1888, December.
    3. Achim Truger, 2013. "Austerity in the euro area: the sad state of economic policy in Germany and the EU," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 158-174.
    4. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
    5. Gustav A. Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Katja Rietzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Streitfall Fiskalpolitik," IMK Report 92-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 159-192.
    7. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    8. Sarah Godar & Christoph Paetz & Achim Truger, 2015. "The scope for progressive tax reform in the OECD countries. A macroeconomic perspective with a case study for Germany," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 79-117.
    9. Achim Truger, 2015. "The Fiscal Compact, Cyclical Adjustment and the Remaining Leeway for Expansionary Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 157-175, June.
    10. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Crisis continues to smoulder," IMK Report 80e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    11. Maria Elkhdari & Moez Souissi & Mr. Andrew Jewell, 2018. "Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2018/124, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Sebastian Gechert & Rafael Mentges, 2013. "What Drives Fiscal Multipliers? The Role of Private Wealth and Debt," IMK Working Paper 124-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim, 2021. "The short-term effects of tax changes: The role of state dependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 918-934.
    15. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Die Krise schwelt weiter," IMK Report 80-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Paweł Baranowski & Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1910-1921, August.
    17. Sylvérie Herbert, 2014. "Econometric analysis of regime switches and of fiscal multipliers," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2014-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    18. Topal, Pinar, 2015. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility," SAFE Working Paper Series 90, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    19. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    20. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    21. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2014. "Fiscal multipliers in recessions and expansions : does it matter whether government spending is increasing or decreasing ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6993, The World Bank.
    22. Gustav A. Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Sabine Stephan & Andrew Watt, 2013. "Inmitten der Krise des Euroraums - Herausforderungen für die Wirtschaftspolitik 2013," IMK Report 79-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    23. Achim Truger, 2014. "Austerity, cyclical adjustment and the remaining leeway for expansionary fiscal policies in the Euro area," IMK Working Paper 140-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Spending; Threshold Model; Vector Autoregression; Nonlinear Dynamics; Impulse-Response Comparison; Bayesian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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