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Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Threshold Regressions

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Listed author(s):
  • Christian R. Proaño

    ()

    (Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research)

  • Christian Schoder

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Willi Semmler

    (Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research)

Abstract

We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity in a non-linear manner due to amplifications from the financial sector. Employing dynamic country-specific and dynamic panel threshold regression methods, we study the non-linear relation between the growth rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio using quarterly data for sixteen industrialized countries for the period 1981Q1-2013Q2. We find that the debt-to-GDP ratio has impaired economic growth primarily during times of high financial stress and only for countries of the European Monetary Union and not for the stand-alone countries in our sample. A high debt-to-GDP ratio by itself does not seem to necessarily negatively affect growth if financial markets are calm.

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Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp167.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp167
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Keywords: financial stress; sovereign debt; economic growth; dynamic panel threshold regression;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
  • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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Cited by:

  1. Lena Dräger & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Business Cycles in Asymmetric Currency Unions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201501, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  2. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2015. "Financial sector and output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 235-263.
  3. Floro, Danvee & van Roye, Björn, 2015. "Threshold Effects of Financial Stress on Monetary Policy Rules: A Panel Data Analysis," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112840, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
  5. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2015. "Financial stability and economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-40.
  6. Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "The Janus-faced nature of debt : result from a data-driven cointegrated SVAR approach," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  7. S Coleman & K Sirichand, 2015. "Investigating Multiple Changes in Persistence in International Yields," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 20(1), pages 65-90, March.
  8. Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2014. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Revisited: The Role of (Non-)Sustainable Debt Thresholds," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp187, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  9. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  10. Semmler, Willi & Proaño, Christian R., 2015. "Escape routes from sovereign default risk in the euro area," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-020, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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