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Fiscal deficits, economic growth and government debt in the USA

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  • Lance Taylor
  • Christian R. Proaño
  • Laura de Carvalho
  • Nelson Barbosa

Abstract

A simple model illustrates interactions between the 'primary' fiscal deficit (total deficit minus interest payments), economic growth and debt. The deficit/income ratio responds countercyclically to growth while growth may respond positively (a 'Keynes' case) or negatively (à la 'Merkel') to the deficit. The recent Great Recession in the USA was atypical in that there was a weak countercyclical fiscal response. The increase in government net borrowing was significantly less than the decrease in private borrowing--an historically unprecedented asymmetry. Econometric estimates verify the historical pattern and further suggest that there is a strong positive effect on growth of a higher primary deficit, even when possible increases in the interest rate are taken into account. Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Lance Taylor & Christian R. Proaño & Laura de Carvalho & Nelson Barbosa, 2012. "Fiscal deficits, economic growth and government debt in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 36(1), pages 189-204.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:189-204
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/ber041
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Dynamic Panels," Working Papers 1304, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. Alberto Botta, 2012. "Conflicting Claims in the Eurozone? Austerity’s Myopic Logic and the Need for a European Federal Union in a post-Keynesian Eurozone Center-Periphery Model," DEM Working Papers Series 011, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    3. Igor Chugunov & Valentina Makohon & Tetniana Krykun, 2019. "Fiscal Policy And Institutional Budget Architectonics," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 5(5).
    4. Gheorghiţă DINCĂ & Marius Sorin DINCĂ, 2015. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in the EU Post-Communist Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 119-132, June.
    5. Halkos, George & Paizanos, Epameinondas, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic performance: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature," MPRA Paper 67737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alberto Botta, 2014. "Conflicting claims in the eurozone? Austerity's myopia and the need for a European Federal Union in a post-Keynesian eurozone center–periphery model," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 45-70, January.
    7. Romero, Hector & Fajardo, Eddy Johanna, 2013. "Notas sobre la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en Venezuela [Some considerations on debt sustainability in Venezuela]," MPRA Paper 69671, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    8. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    9. Petra Došenoviæ Bonèa & Maks Tajnikar, 2018. "Austerity policies, economic growth and fiscal balance: lessons from Slovenia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 287-308.
    10. Martin Murín, 2016. "Vplyv spôsobu tvorby fiškálneho deficitu na ekonomický rast [The Influence of Fiscal Deficit Creation on Economic Growth]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(2), pages 176-192.
    11. Timothy P. Sharpe, 2013. "Institutional arrangements and public debt threshold limits," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 707-728, November.
    12. Christian Schoder, 2017. "Estimating Keynesian models of business fluctuations using Bayesian Maximum Likelihood," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 586–630-5, October.
    13. Servaas Storm, 2023. "Lance Taylor (1940–2022): Reconstructing Macroeconomics," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(5), pages 1331-1353, September.
    14. Paulo André Camuri & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Ana Maria Hermeto, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies [Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 835-861, December.
    15. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Tsai-Yuan Huang, 2017. "Non-linear Growth-Determinants Nexus: The Role of Sovereign Debt," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 222(3), pages 43-63, September.
    16. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2020. "Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Simultaneous Error Correction Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 683-707, September.
    17. Marcello Spano', 2012. "A survey of the theoretical models of corporate hedging," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf1204, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    18. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
    19. Mohammed Ershad Hussain & Mahfuzul Haque, 2017. "Fiscal Deficit and Its Impact on Economic Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-19, October.
    20. Stephen Thompson, 2022. "“The total movement of this disorder is its order”: Investment and utilization dynamics in long‐run disequilibrium," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 638-682, May.
    21. Tariq Hussain & Ahmad Raza Ul Mustafa & Makhdum M.I. & Kaleem Ullah, 2022. "Defense Expenditures, Fiscal Deficit And Debt Servicing Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 74-83, June.
    22. Vishal Sharma & Ashok Mittal, 2019. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and economic growth in India: a nonlinear ARDL model," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 46(4), pages 353-363, December.
    23. Huiqin Li & Shuai Guan & Yongfu Liu, 2022. "Analysis on the Steady Growth Effect of China’s Fiscal Policy from a Dynamic Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-15, June.
    24. Attahir Babaji Abubakar, 2020. "Does fiscal tightening (loosening) reduce public debt?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 528-539, December.
    25. Yifu Yang & Sheng Zhang & Nannan Zhang & Zuhui Wen & Qihao Zhang & Meng Xu & Yingfan Zhang & Muchuan Niu, 2022. "The Dynamic Relationship between China’s Economic Cycle, Government Debt, and Economic Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, January.

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