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Streitfall Fiskalpolitik

  • Gustav A. Horn
  • Sebastian Gechert
  • Katja Rietzler
  • Kai D. Schmid

Sind fiskalpolitische Maßnahmen geeignet zur Stabilisierung konjunktureller Entwicklungen? Dies hängt ganz entscheidend davon ab, wie eine Volkswirtschaft fiskalische Impulse verarbeitet. Eine systematische Analyse (Meta-Regressions-Analyse) von 104 Studien mit 1069 Auswertungen zur Höhe des Fiskalmultiplikators ermöglicht den Vergleich der Wirkungen verschiedener fiskalischer Maßnahmen. Die Studie erklärt Unterschiede zwischen den in den Studien ausgewiesenen Multiplikatorwerten anhand weiterer Einflussgrößen und bietet eine Reihe klarer Einsichten: Diskretionäre Fiskalpolitik ist grundsätzlich ein geeignetes Instrument, um eine rezessive oder überschäumende Wirtschaft auf einen stabilen Kurs zu bringen. Diskretionäre Fiskalpolitik sollte daher wieder zum allgemein akzeptierten wirtschaftspolitischen Instrumentarium gehören. Das Ausmaß der Auswirkungen ist abhängig von der Art der Maßnahme. Entgegen den allgemein verbreiteten Empfehlungen in der Finanzkrise sollten Konjunkturprogramme vor allem in Form höherer Ausgaben umgesetzt werden. Diese sind einnahmeseitigen Maßnahmen überlegen. Öffentliche Investitionen zeigen dabei den stärksten Effekt. Will man umgekehrt die Wirtschaft bremsen, empfehlen sich Ausgabenkürzungen. Ist die Aufnahme zusätzlicher Staatsschulden durch rechtliche oder ökonomische Zwänge eng begrenzt, bietet es sich an, ein investives Konjunkturprogramm durch höhere Steuern zu finanzieren. Da der Investitionsmultiplikator signifikant über dem Steuermultiplikator liegt, ist mit einem positiven Wachstumsimpuls zu rechnen, der den öffentlichen Haushalt in der Folge sogar entlastet.

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Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Report with number 92-2014.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:imk:report:92-2014
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  1. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
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  5. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Lack Of An Empirical Rationale For A Revival Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(2), pages 9-13, 07.
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  8. Gernot Müller & Andre Meier & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 12/150, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Sebastian Gechert & Rafael Mentges, 2013. "What Drives Fiscal Multipliers? The Role of Private Wealth and Debt," IMK Working Paper 124-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  10. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Willi Semmler & André Semmler, 2013. "The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Austerity in Europe," IMK Working Paper 122-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  14. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach," LEM Papers Series 2013/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  15. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1997. "Some Thoughts on Practical Stabilization Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 236-39, May.
  16. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2012. "Regime dependence of the fiscal multiplier," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 502-522.
  17. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment," NBER Working Papers 9203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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