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The laffer curve and the debt-growth link in low-income Sub-Saharan African economies

Author

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  • Kelbesa Abdisa Megersa

Abstract

Purpose - – The study of the link between debt and growth has been full of debates, both in theory and empirics. However, there is a growing consensus that the relationship is sensitive to the level of debt. The purpose of this paper is to address the question of non-linearity in the long-term relationship between public debt and economic growth. Specifically, the author set out to test if there exists an established “laffer curve” type relationship, where debt contributes to economic growth up to a certain point (maximal threshold) and then starts to have a negative effect on growth afterwards. Design/methodology/approach - – To carry out the tests, the author has used a methodology that delivers a superior test of inverse U-shapes (Lind and Mehlum, 2010), in addition to the traditional test based on a regression with a quadratic specification. Findings - – The results in the paper present evidence of a bell-shaped relationship between economic growth and total public debt in a panel of low-income Sub-Saharan African economies. This supports the hypothesis that debt has some positive contribution to economic growth in low-income countries, albeit up to a point. Practical implications - – The overall result supports the claim that public debt may start to be a drag on economic growth if it goes on increasing beyond the level where it would be sustainable. Originality/value - – This paper leads the way by implementing a robust test of non-linearity (“inverse-U” test) to the analyses the debt-growth nexus and the laffer curve in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelbesa Abdisa Megersa, 2015. "The laffer curve and the debt-growth link in low-income Sub-Saharan African economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(5), pages 878-892, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:42:y:2015:i:5:p:878-892
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-06-2014-0095
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rutayisire, J.Musoni, 2021. "Public debt dynamics and nonlinear effects on economic growth : evidence from Rwanda," MPRA Paper 110931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Megersa, kelbesa & Cassimon, Danny, 2016. "Debt Sustainability and direction of trade: What does Africa’s shifting engagement with BRIC and OECD tells us?," MPRA Paper 76581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Filiz GİRAY & Gamze ÇİMEN, 2022. "Tax Optimality in Turkey: An Analysis for Total Tax Revenues," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 8(2), pages 63-77, 06-2022.
    4. Omotor, Douglason G., 2019. "A Thrifty North and An Impecunious South: Nigeria's External Debt and the Tyranny of Political Economy," MPRA Paper 115292, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Oct 2019.
    5. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Alancioğlu, Erdal & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry, 2021. "New insights on the debt-growth nexus: A combination of the interactive fixed effects and panel threshold approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 40-55.
    6. Dary, Stanley K. & James, Harvey S., 2019. "Does investment in trade credit matter for profitability? Evidence from publicly listed agro-food firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 237-250.
    7. Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Public Debt, Economic Growth, and Public Sector Management in Developing Countries: Is There a Link?," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 329-346, December.
    8. Duong Phuong Thao Pham & Thi Cam Ha Huynh, 2020. "The Impact of Trade Credit Investment on Manufacturing Firms' Profitability: Evidence from Vietnam," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 775-796.
    9. Tahira Sadaf & Touseef Anwer & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Ayesha Rouf & Ifza Younas & Zahid Iqbal, 2023. "External Debt and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan (1972-2021)," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 5(3), pages 197-201.
    10. P. S. Renjith & K. R. Shanmugam, 2025. "Sustainability and Growth Implications of Sub-national Debt: The Indian Experience," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 23(3), pages 875-898, September.
    11. Liang, Xuefang & Qianqian, Ding & Tanai, Breshna & Shinwari, Riazullah, 2023. "On the conflict of natural resources hypothesis in Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    12. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "A Meta-Analysis on the Debt-Growth Relationship," MPRA Paper 114409, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

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