IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jqecon/v23y2025i3d10.1007_s40953-025-00445-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sustainability and Growth Implications of Sub-national Debt: The Indian Experience

Author

Listed:
  • P. S. Renjith

    (Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation)

  • K. R. Shanmugam

    (Madras School of Economics)

Abstract

This study critically examines the debt policies of 22 Indian state governments, focusing on the sustainability of debt and its implications for economic growth. To assess debt sustainability, it employs a combination of the panel version of the fiscal policy response function and penalized spline estimation for the period 2005–06 to 2019–20. To analyze the growth implications of public debt, an augmented growth model for panel data and a penalized spline technique is used. The study observes that a positive and statistically significant response of the primary balance to changes in outstanding debt is sufficient for ensuring debt sustainability. Only in 6 out of 22 states, the primary surplus reacts positively to public debt, indicating debt sustainability. Moreover, the reaction coefficients are time-varying in 8 states. In 16 states, the debt is unsustainable, which suggests policy intervention. The study also finds that public debt has a growth-stimulating effect in 8 states. In 14 states, the debt has either no significant or a significantly negative effect on growth, indicating the need for corrective measures. This highlights that sub-national debt sustainability does not necessarily lead to economic growth. Overall, this is a unique analysis in the Indian sub-national context. Its findings can help policymakers, international agencies and other researchers in formulating strategies to improve the debt conditions of Indian states.

Suggested Citation

  • P. S. Renjith & K. R. Shanmugam, 2025. "Sustainability and Growth Implications of Sub-national Debt: The Indian Experience," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 23(3), pages 875-898, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:23:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-025-00445-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-025-00445-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40953-025-00445-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40953-025-00445-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic, 2017. "How well do subnational borrowing regulations work?," Chapters, in: Naoyuki Yoshino & Peter J. Morgan (ed.), Central and Local Government Relations in Asia, chapter 5, pages 161-220, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Gottfried Haber & Reinhard Neck, 2006. "Sustainability of Austrian public debt: a political economy perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 141-154, June.
    3. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    4. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    6. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    7. Mohammed Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE & Richard S. IGWIKE, 2015. "Relationship between Economic Growth and Debt: An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 262-275, June.
    8. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    9. Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi‐Country Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(289), pages 129-156, February.
    10. Andreea Stoian & Bettina Bokemeier & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu & Cosmin Octavian Cepoi, 2023. "For better and worse: heterogeneity in the fiscal response in EU countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1287-1292, June.
    11. Kelbesa Abdisa Megersa, 2015. "The laffer curve and the debt-growth link in low-income Sub-Saharan African economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(5), pages 878-892, October.
    12. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    13. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/006, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    15. Bettina Fincke & Alfred Greiner, 2015. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 357-370, September.
    16. P.S. Renjith & K.R. Shanmugam, 2018. "Sustainable Debt Policies of Indian State Governments," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 224-243, May.
    17. Sugata Ghosh, 1998. "Can higher debt lead to higher welfare? A theoretical and numerical analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 111-116.
    18. Alfred Greiner & Bettina Fincke, 2015. "Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-09348-2, January.
    19. Peeyush Srivastava, 2016. "Debt Management of the Government," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: Charan Singh (ed.), Public Debt Management, chapter 0, pages 23-39, Springer.
    20. Kelbesa Abdisa Megersa, 2015. "The laffer curve and the debt-growth link in low-income Sub-Saharan African economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(5), pages 878-892, October.
    21. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    22. Isaac Sánchez-Juárez & Rosa García-Almada, 2016. "Public Debt, Public Investment and Economic Growth in Mexico," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, March.
    23. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    24. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2014. "Public debt and economic growth in India: A reassessment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 292-300.
    25. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Debt Sustainability in India: Empirical Evidence Estimating Time-Varying Parameters," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1133-1141.
    26. Bhanu Pratap Singh & Sujit Kumar, 2024. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in India: The New Evidence," Millennial Asia, , vol. 15(3), pages 429-446, September.
    27. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    28. Raghbendra Jha & Anurag Sharma, 2004. "Structural Breaks, Unit Roots, and Cointegration: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit," Public Finance Review, , vol. 32(2), pages 196-219, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. K. R. Shanmugam & K. Shanmugam, 2022. "Sustainability and Threshold Value of Public Debt in Tamil Nadu," Working Papers 2022-226, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    2. P.S. Renjith & K.R. Shanmugam, 2018. "Sustainable Debt Policies of Indian State Governments," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 224-243, May.
    3. K. R. Shanmugam & P.S. Renjith, 2023. "Sustainability and Threshold Value of Public Debt of Centre and All State Governments in India," Working Papers 2023-240, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    4. Magulsha George & K. R. Shanmugam, 2022. "Public Debt and External Debt Sustainability among BRICS Countries," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(3-4), pages 231-253, August.
    5. Debi Prasad Bal & Sanhita Sucharita & Narayan Sethi & Seba Mohanty, 2025. "Is Public Debt Sustainable in Indian States? An Empirical Insight," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(2), pages 8358-8373, June.
    6. K. R. Shanmugam & P.S. Renjith, 2022. "Empirical Analysis on Sustainability of Public Debt in Indian States," Working Papers 2022-235, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    7. K. R. Shanmugam & P.S. Renjith, 2024. "Sustainability and Threshold Value of Public Debt in Karnataka," Working Papers 2024-256, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    8. Michał Mackiewicz, 2021. "The sustainability of fiscal policy in southern African countries–a comparative empirical perspective," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(2), pages 337-350, April.
    9. Sidi Mohammed Chekouri & Abderrahim Chibi & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2024. "Public debt dynamics and fiscal sustainability in selected North African countries: new evidence from recurrent explosive behavior tests and quantile unit root analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-27, April.
    10. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    11. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    12. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    13. Abubakar, Attahir B. & McCausland, W. David & Theodossiou, Ioannis, 2025. "Do debt relief and fiscal rules improve public debt sustainability? The experience of sub-Sahara African countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 166-186.
    14. Jos Mauricio Gil Le n & John William Rosso Murillo & Edgar Alonso Ramirez Hern ndez, 2019. "Public Debt and Stability in Economic Growth: Evidence for Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 137-147.
    15. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "The global dimension to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 137-150, June.
    16. Mohanty, Ranjan Kumar & Panda, Sidheswar, 2019. "How Does Public Debt affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 19/250, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    17. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & Sidheswar Panda, 2020. "How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(3), pages 253-284, August.
    19. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69, April.
    20. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2012. "Nonlinearities And The Sustainability Of The Government'S Intertemporal Budget Constraint," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 988-999, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:23:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-025-00445-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.