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Public Debt Dynamics: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks

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  • Fuad Hasanov
  • Reda Cherif

Abstract

We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuad Hasanov & Reda Cherif, 2012. "Public Debt Dynamics: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2012/230, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/230
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; austerity shock; debt dynamics; debt ratio decline; inflation shock; debt reduction; Public debt; fiscal policy; VAR; impulse responses; debt impulse responses; baseline debt ratio; debt feedback; Inflation; Debt sustainability analysis; Vector autoregression; Fiscal stance; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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