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Public Debt Dynamics and Debt Feedback

  • Reda, Cherif
  • Fuad, Hasanov

We study the dynamics of U.S. public debt in a parsimonious VAR. We find that including debt feedback ensures the stationarity of debt while standard VARs excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. We also find that the response of debt to inflation or interest shocks is not robust and depends on the policy regime. The recent past suggests that a positive shock to inflation increases debt while the same to interest rate decreases it. Positive shocks to growth and primary surplus unambiguously reduce debt.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27918/1/MPRA_paper_27918.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27918.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27918
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
  3. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
  4. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011. "Using inflation to erode the US public debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
  5. Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Measuring the Fiscal Stance," Discussion Papers 07/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
  6. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 12822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hess Chung & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "What Has Financed Government Debt?," NBER Working Papers 13425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 3.
  9. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
  10. Robert J. Barro, 1980. "Federal Deficit Policy and the Effects of Public Debt Shocks," NBER Working Papers 0443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 15702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. J. Boissinot & C. L'Angevin & B. Monfort, 2004. "Public Debt Sustainability: Some Results on the French Case," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2004-10, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  13. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2009. "How large are the effects of tax changes?," Working Papers 350, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  15. Gernot Müller & Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," IMF Working Papers 09/106, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
  17. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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