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Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey


  • Evan Tanner
  • Issouf Samake


This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries—Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus required to keep the debt-GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50, 25, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than do frameworks currently in use. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 149–182; doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450029; published online 12 February 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Tanner & Issouf Samake, 2008. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 149-182, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:1:p:149-182

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    Cited by:

    1. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu & Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu), 2018. "Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret-Onorato, 2016. "Power-Law Distribution in the Debt-to-Fiscal Revenue Ratio: Empirical Evidence and a Theoretical Model," Working Papers halshs-01357797, HAL.
    3. Pourmohammad Gelsefidi , Seyed Hamid & Tayyebnia , Ali & Mehrara , Mohsen & Amirian , Roodabeh, 2018. "Fiscal versus Monetary Dominance: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(3), pages 375-400, July.
    4. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    5. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2011. "Növekedés, deficit és adósság - fenntartható keretben [Growth, deficit and debt - in a sustainable framework]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 511-528.
    6. Varun Chotia, 2019. "The Impact Of Fiscal Consolidation And Economic Growth On Debt: Evidence From India," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(222), pages 63-80, July – Se.
    7. Tielens, J. & van Aarle, B. & Van Hove, J., 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    8. Khansa Zaman & Muhammad Saeed Rana & Umer Iftikhar, 2019. "A Multilevel Analysis of Job Demands and Intention to Resign Through Perceived Service Recovery Performance," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 11(2), pages 67-82, June.
    9. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2016. "External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 81-120, June.
    10. Kenta Inoue, 2014. "Is Correlation Puzzle Really Puzzling? Reassessing Motives Of Foreign Asset Holdings By Us Investors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 160-172, March.
    11. Dufrénot, Gilles & Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2019. "Power-law distribution in the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratios: Empirical evidence and a theoretical model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 341-359.
    12. Murat Taşdemir & Abdullah Yalama, 2014. "Volatility Spillover Effects in Interregional Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Brazil and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 190-202, March.
    13. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2013. "External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 13/27, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Muhammad Jalib Sikandar & Fazale Wahid, 2019. "Debt and Economic Growth of Pakistan; Role of Uncertain Economic and Political Conditions," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 11(2), pages 83-106, June.

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