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Power-law distribution in the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratios: Empirical evidence and a theoretical model

Author

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  • Gilles Dufrénot

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Anne-Charlotte Paret

    (ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratio in emerging countries follows a power-law distribution. Such a distribution reflects the fact that external debt distress or debt crises correspond to extreme events that have been found to happen fairly often. We formally test the hypothesis of a power-law, going further than the usual visual inspection of the distribution of the variable of interest on a doubly logarithmic scale. We also show that such a distribution can be derived from a theoretical model in which uncertainty comes from tax evasion and corruption. Using the framework of an optimal stochastic growth model, we model the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratio as a diffusion process for which the stochastic steady state distribution is derived using the properties of Itô diffusion processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2019. "Power-law distribution in the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratios: Empirical evidence and a theoretical model," Post-Print hal-02158001, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02158001
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.04.002
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://amu.hal.science/hal-02158001v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Dufrénot & Carolina Ulloa Suarez, 2019. "Public finance sustainability in Europe: a behavioral model," AMSE Working Papers 1929, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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