IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v42y2014icp156-173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Tielens, J.
  • van Aarle, B.
  • Van Hove, J.

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of Eurobonds on sovereign debt dynamics for selected European member states (Greece, Ireland and Portugal). For each member state, we produce sovereign debt fan charts of (i) a baseline scenario (no Eurobonds) and (ii) a Full-Fledged Eurobond introduction. The key building blocks of our methodology are (i) a debt framework (which embeds the traditional recursive debt equation), (ii) a vector autoregressive model to take into account and parametrise macroeconomic uncertainty and (iii) a fiscal reaction function. Conditional on the absence of moral hazard, we find Eurobonds to be a good instrument to absorb macroeconomic shocks and to diminish uncertainty over future debt forecasts; for Ireland and Portugal, we find debt to be 20 percentage points lower than under our baseline scenario, by 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Tielens, J. & van Aarle, B. & Van Hove, J., 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:156-173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.06.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070414000792
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.06.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    2. Johannes Holler, 2013. "Funding Strategies of Sovereign Debt Management: A Risk Focus," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 51-74.
    3. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
    4. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1087-1105, May.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Government Debt Issuance in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/021, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Roberto Rigobon & Marcio Garcia, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an application to Brazilian data," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 24, Econometric Society.
    7. van Aarle, Bas & Kappler, Marcus, 2011. "Fiscal adjustment in Greece: In search for sustainable public finances," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-080, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Tim Oliver Berg & Kai Carstensen & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2011. "Was kosten Eurobonds?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(17), pages 25-33, September.
    9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    10. Jan in 't Veld & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Istvan P. Szekely, 2012. "Sovereign debt sustainability scenarios based on an estimated model for Spain," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 466, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Adrian Penalver & Gregory Thwaites, 2006. "Fiscal rules for debt sustainability in emerging markets: the impact of volatility and default risk," Bank of England working papers 307, Bank of England.
    13. Massimo Bordignon & Paolo Manasse & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Optimal Regional Redistribution under Asymmetric Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 709-723, June.
    14. Philip Liu & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "DSGE Model Restrictions for Structural VAR Identification," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 61-95, December.
    15. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    16. Matthias Hartmann & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Did the introduction of the euro impact on inflation uncertainty? - An empirical assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 396, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    18. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-271, February.
    19. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussão 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    21. William R. Cline, 2011. "Sustainability of Greek Public Debt," Policy Briefs PB11-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    22. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    23. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    24. Katia Berti, 2013. "Stochastic public debt projections using the historical variance-covariance matrix approach for EU countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 480, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    25. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    26. repec:sae:niesru:v:217:y:2011:i:1:p:r37-r45 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Markus Eller & Jarmila Urvová, 2012. "How Sustainable Are Public Debt Levels in Emerging Europe?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 48-79.
    28. Dawn Holland & Simon Kirby & Ali Orazgani, 2011. "Modelling The Sovereign Debt Crisis In Europe," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217(1), pages 37-45, July.
    29. Kopf, Christian, 2011. "Restoring financial stability in the euro area," CEPS Papers 4292, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    30. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Moral Hazard," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 623-646, May.
    31. Paul De Grauwe, 2011. "Managing a Fragile Eurozone," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(02), pages 40-45, July.
    32. Shahin Vallée, 2012. "Paths to eurobonds," Bruegel Working Papers 733, Bruegel.
    33. Evan Tanner & Issouf Samake, 2008. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 149-182, April.
    34. William R. Cline, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Italy and Spain: A Probabilistic Approach," Working Paper Series WP12-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    35. Silvio Contessi, 2012. "An application of conventional sovereign debt sustainability analysis to the current debt crises," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(May), pages 197-220.
    36. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 979-1009, October.
    37. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    38. Lojsch, Dagmar Hartwig & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Slavík, Michal, 2011. "The size and composition of government debt in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 132, European Central Bank.
    39. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    40. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Cuadra & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Santiago Garcia-Verdu, 2018. "On the role of financial aid in a default episode," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Badarau, Cristina & Huart, Florence & Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2021. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of eurobonds," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Luciano Greco & Francesco Jacopo Pintus & Davide Raggi, 2023. "When Fiscal Discipline meets Macroeconomic Stability: the Euro-stability Bond," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0300, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    4. Gabriela Dobrotă & Alina Daniela Voda, 2024. "Stochastic Debt Sustainability Analysis in Romania in the Context of the War in Ukraine," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, July.
    5. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Baghdassarian, William & Mele, Gianluca & Pradelli, Juan, 2014. "Assessing public debt sustainability in Mauritania with a stochastic framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7088, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ben Hassine Khalladi, Hela, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability Assessment: A Stochastic Approach for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 93892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Aleksandar Zdravkovic & Aleksandra Bradic-Martinovic, 2012. "Public Debt Sustainability in Western Balkan Countries," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 472-492, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    4. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    5. István Ábel & Ádám Kóbor, 2022. "Macroeconomic Components of the Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Hungary," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Issouf Samaké, 2006. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2006/295, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Debrun, Xavier & Willems, Tim & Wyplosz, Charles, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    9. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    10. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2023. "A balance‐sheet approach to fiscal sustainability," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 61-84, March.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    13. Everaert, Gerdie & Jansen, Stijn, 2018. "On the estimation of panel fiscal reaction functions: Heterogeneity or fiscal fatigue?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 87-96.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Gozde Es POLAT & Onur POLAT, 2021. "Fiscal sustainability analysis in EU countries: a dynamic macro-panel approach," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 219-241, June.
    16. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00909907 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça & Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos Santos, 2008. "Revisitando a Função de Reação Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem de Mudanças de Regime," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807171729460, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69, September.
    19. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    20. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Mr. Kevin J Carey, 2005. "The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output," IMF Working Papers 2005/207, International Monetary Fund.
    21. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The Euro Area Crisis: Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 683-710, September.
    23. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Fournier, Jean-Marc & Fall, Falilou, 2017. "Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 30-41.
    25. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye & Phillip A. Olomola, 2023. "Sub‐Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 85-115, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurobonds; Stability bonds; Sovereign debt sustainability; Sovereign debt crisis; Fan charts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:156-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.