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Cross-border banking flows spillovers in the Eurozone: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

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  • Poutineau, Jean-Christophe
  • Vermandel, Gauthier

Abstract

This paper seeks to evaluate quantitatively how interbank and corporate cross-border flows shape business cycles in a monetary union. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate a two-country DSGE model that distinguishes between Eurozone core and peripheral countries and accounts for national heterogeneities and a set of real, nominal and financial frictions. We find evidence of the key role of this cross-border channel as an amplifying mechanism in the diffusion of asymmetric shocks. Our model also reveals that under banking globalization, most national variables and the central bank interest rate are less sensitive to financial shocks while investment and current account imbalances are more sensitive to financial shocks. Finally, a counterfactual analysis shows that cross-border lending has affected the transmission of the recent financial crisis between the two groups of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Poutineau, Jean-Christophe & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2015. "Cross-border banking flows spillovers in the Eurozone: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 378-403.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:378-403
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.11.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Burgess, Stephen & Burrows, Oliver & Godin, Antoine & Kinsella, Stephen & Millard, Stephen, 2016. "A dynamic model of financial balances for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 614, Bank of England.
    2. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pb:p:149-160 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Poutineau, Jean-Christophe & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2015. "Financial frictions and the extensive margin of activity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 525-554.
    4. Baas, Timo & Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Oil price shocks, monetary policy and current account imbalances within a currency union," CEPS Papers 13334, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    5. Poutineau, Jean-Christophe & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2017. "Global banking and the conduct of macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 306-331.
    6. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2015. "Quelle prise en compte des caractéristiques nationales dans les mesures macroprudentielles en zone euro ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 95-141.
    7. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
    8. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:14:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-018-0025-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ewen Gallic & Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2017. "L’impact de la crise financière sur la performance de la politique monétaire conventionnelle de la zone euro," Post-Print halshs-01683686, HAL.
    10. Guillaume Khayat, 2017. "The Corridor's Width as a Monetary Policy Tool," Working Papers halshs-01611650, HAL.
    11. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    12. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2017. "A Welfare Analysis of Macroprudential Policy Rules in the Euro Area," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 127(2), pages 191-226.
    13. Thibaud Cargoet & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2018. "Financial Disruption and State Dependant Credit Policy," Post-Print halshs-01683785, HAL.
    14. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Karolina Sobczak & Gauthier Vermandel, 2015. "The analytics of the New Keynesian 3-equation Model," Post-Print halshs-01184591, HAL.
    15. Blattner, Tobias & Swarbrick, Jonathan, 2017. "Monetary policy and cross-border interbank market fragmentation: lessons from the crisis," EconStor Preprints 157881, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    16. Fritz Breuss, 2016. "Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?," WIFO Working Papers 530, WIFO.
    17. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Pengfei Jia, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy Coordination in a Currency Union'," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 235, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    18. Benjamin Schwanebeck, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Financially Heterogeneous Monetary Union," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201741, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    19. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:249-272 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking globalization; Monetary policy; Financial accelerator; Interbank market; Eurozone;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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