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Quelle prise en compte des caractéristiques nationales dans les mesures macro-prudentielles en zone euro ?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Christophe Poutineau

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Gauthier Vermandel

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

Abstract

Cet article évalue l'impact des prêts transfrontaliers sur les modalités de mise en œuvre des mesures de politique macro-prudentielle dans la zone euro. L'objectif est d'apprécier – indépendamment de l'organisation institutionnelle actuelle - quel poids relatif il convient d'affecter aux considérations fédérales et nationales. L'analyse est menée dans le cadre d'un MEGIS à deux pays, prenant en compte le mécanisme d'accélérateur financier. Ce modèle est estimé à l'aide de l'économétrie bayesienne sur données européennes en séparant les pays du cœur de la zone des pays de la périphérie. Nos résultats montrent que la divergence des cycles réels et financiers entre les deux régions de l'union monétaire tient à la fois à l'hétérogénéité régionale des paramètres structurels et à celle des chocs subis qui apparaissent plus importants dans les pays de la périphérie. Pour ce qui concerne la mise en œuvre de la politique macro-économique, le traitement hétérogène des pays conduit à une plus forte réaction de cet instrument dans les pays de la périphérie, ce qui affecte parfois de manière différente les performances macroéconomiques régionales. Enfin, une analyse contrefactuelle étudiant la réaction de l'activité et de l'investissement au moment de la crise montre que si globalement l'union monétaire (en moyenne) et les pays de la périphérie bénéficient de la mise en œuvre de mesures macro prudentielles ; les pays du cœur voient au contraire leur situation se détériorer.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2015. "Quelle prise en compte des caractéristiques nationales dans les mesures macro-prudentielles en zone euro ?," Working Papers halshs-01205487, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01205487
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01205487
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