IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/65276.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Entrepreneurship: cause and consequence of financial optimism

Author

Listed:
  • Dawson, Christopher
  • de Meza, David
  • Henley, Andrew
  • Arabsheibani, G. Reza

Abstract

Extant evidence that the self-employed overestimate their returns by a greater margin than employees is consistent with two mutually inclusive possibilities. Self-employment may foster optimism or intrinsic optimists may be drawn to self-employment. Previous research is generally unable to disentangle these effects because of reliance on cross-sectional data. Using longitudinal data, this paper finds that employees who will be self-employed in the future overestimate their short-term financial wellbeing by more than those who never become self-employed. Optimism is higher still when self-employed. These results suggest that the greater optimism of the self-employed reflects both psychological disposition and environmental factors. By providing greater scope for optimism, self-employment entices the intrinsically optimistic.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawson, Christopher & de Meza, David & Henley, Andrew & Arabsheibani, G. Reza, 2014. "Entrepreneurship: cause and consequence of financial optimism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65276, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:65276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/65276/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Andrew Henley, 2007. "Entrepreneurial aspiration and transition into self-employment: evidence from British longitudinal data," Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 253-280, May.
    3. de Meza, David & Southey, Clive, 1996. "The Borrower's Curse: Optimism, Finance and Entrepreneurship," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 375-386, March.
    4. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2017. "Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 963-1018.
    5. Parker,Simon C., 2009. "The Economics of Entrepreneurship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521728355, March.
    6. Evan J. Douglas & Dean A. Shepherd, 2002. "Self-Employment as a Career Choice: Attitudes, Entrepreneurial Intentions, and Utility Maximization," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 26(3), pages 81-90, April.
    7. Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 137-154, January.
    8. repec:bla:obuest:v:62:y:2000:i:5:p:565-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. William Greene, 2004. "The behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimator of limited dependent variable models in the presence of fixed effects," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 98-119, June.
    10. Andrew E. Burke & Felix R. FitzRoy & Michael A. Nolan, 2000. "When Less is More: Distinguishing Between Entrepreneurial Choice and Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(5), pages 565-587, December.
    11. Cooper, Arnold C. & Woo, Carolyn Y. & Dunkelberg, William C., 1988. "Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 97-108.
    12. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Earnings, Independence or Unemployment: Why Become Self-Employed?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 253-266, May.
    14. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    15. Cassar, Gavin & Craig, Justin, 2009. "An investigation of hindsight bias in nascent venture activity," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 149-164, March.
    16. Puri, Manju & Robinson, David T., 2007. "Optimism and economic choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 71-99, October.
    17. Parker,Simon C., 2009. "The Economics of Entrepreneurship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899604, March.
    18. Amit, Raphael & Muller, Eitan & Cockburn, Iain, 1995. "Opportunity costs and entrepreneurial activity," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 95-106, March.
    19. Gavin Cassar, 2010. "Are individuals entering self‐employment overly optimistic? an empirical test of plans and projections on nascent entrepreneur expectations," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 822-840, August.
    20. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    21. Barton H. Hamilton, 2000. "Does Entrepreneurship Pay? An Empirical Analysis of the Returns to Self-Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 604-631, June.
    22. Gavin Cassar, 2007. "Money, money, money? A longitudinal investigation of entrepreneur career reasons, growth preferences and achieved growth," Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 89-107, January.
    23. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2006. "Financial expectations, consumption and saving: a microeconomic analysis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 313-338, August.
    24. Levine, Ross & Rubinstein, Yona, 2013. "Smart and illicit: who becomes an entrepreneur and does it pay?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    25. Manju Puri & David T. Robinson, 2013. "The Economic Psychology of Entrepreneurship and Family Business," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 423-444, June.
    26. Hvide, Hans K., 2002. "Pragmatic beliefs and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 15-28, May.
    27. repec:tiu:tiutis:bdbe10dd-649c-4521-ab28-7aa051a5bf82 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    29. Amit, Raphael & MacCrimmon, Kenneth R. & Zietsma, Charlene & Oesch, John M., 2001. "Does money matter?: Wealth attainment as the motive for initiating growth-oriented technology ventures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 119-143, March.
    30. Forbes, Daniel P., 2005. "Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 623-640, September.
    31. Evans, David S & Leighton, Linda S, 1989. "Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 519-535, June.
    32. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
    33. Thomas Astebro & Scott A. Jeffrey & Gordon K. Adomdza, 2007. "Inventor Perseverance after Being Told to Quit : The Role of Cognitive Biases," Post-Print hal-00476770, HAL.
    34. Stuart Fraser & Francis J. Greene, 2006. "The Effects of Experience on Entrepreneurial Optimism and Uncertainty," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(290), pages 169-192, May.
    35. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9830 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Busenitz, Lowell W. & Barney, Jay B., 1997. "Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-30, January.
    37. C. M. Van Praag & J. S. Cramer, 2001. "The Roots of Entrepreneurship and Labour Demand: Individual Ability and Low Risk Aversion," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(269), pages 45-62, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca David Opromolla & Michele Dell'Era, 2018. "A General Equilibrium Theory of Occupational Choice under Optimistic Beliefs about Entrepreneurial Ability," Working Papers w201822, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Emanuela Carbonara & Hien Thu Tran & Enrico Santarelli, 2020. "Determinants of novice, portfolio, and serial entrepreneurship: an occupational choice approach," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 123-151, June.
    3. Przemyslaw Zbierowski, 2015. "Positive Entrepreneurship: Antecedents and Outcomes of Entrepreneurship within Positive Organizational Scholarship (Przedsiebiorczosc pozytywna – przyczyny i rezultaty przedsiebiorczosci z zakresu poz," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 13(56), pages 38-54.
    4. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2018. "Selection into Entrepreneurship and Self-Employment," NBER Working Papers 25350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Oliver Thomas, 2018. "Two decades of cognitive bias research in entrepreneurship: What do we know and where do we go from here?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 107-143, April.
    6. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2015. "Quelle prise en compte des caractéristiques nationales dans les mesures macroprudentielles en zone euro ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 95-141.
    7. Michele Dell'Era & Luca David Opromolla & Luís Santos‐Pinto, 2023. "Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 139-169, January.
    8. Dawson, Chris, 2017. "The upside of pessimism − Biased beliefs and the paradox of the contented female worker," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 215-228.
    9. Luc Bridet & Peter Schwardmann, 2020. "Selling Dreams: Endogenous Optimism in Lending Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8271, CESifo.
    10. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2017. "Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 963-1018.
    11. Peter Schwardmann & Joël van der Weele, 2016. "Deception and Self-Deception," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-012/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Cucchiarini, Veronica & Scicchitano, Sergio & Viale, Riccardo, 2024. "The Entrepreneur's Cognitive and Behavioral Journey: Understanding Heuristics and Bias under Risk and Uncertainty," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1390, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Daisuke Tsuruta, 2020. "SME policies as a barrier to growth of SMEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1067-1106, April.
    14. Odermatt, Reto & Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Stutzer, Alois, 2021. "Are newly self-employed overly optimistic about their future well-being?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    15. Kai Barron & Steffen Huck & Philippe Jehiel, 2024. "Everyday Econometricians: Selection Neglect and Overoptimism When Learning from Others," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 162-198, August.
    16. Gano-An Jonathan C. & Gempes Gloria P., 2020. "The Success and Failures of Sari-Sari Stores: Exploring the Minds of Women Micro-Entrepreneurs," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 25-51, August.
    17. M. Mahdi Moeini Gharagozloo & Fatemeh Askarzadeh & Ali Moeini Gharagozloo, 2022. "More power for international entrepreneurs: the effect of digital readiness of economies on channeling national R&D resources to entrepreneurship," Journal of International Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 474-502, September.
    18. de Meza, David & Dawson, Christopher & Henley, Andrew & Arabsheibani, G. Reza, 2019. "Curb your enthusiasm: Optimistic entrepreneurs earn less," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 53-69.
    19. Jakob Infuehr & Volker Laux, 2022. "Managerial Optimism and Debt Covenants," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 353-371, March.
    20. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & Tina Xu, 2017. "Personality Traits of Entrepreneurs: A Review of Recent Literature," NBER Working Papers 24097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Vernet, Antoine & Khayesi, Jane N.O. & George, Vivian & George, Gerard & Bahaj, Abubakar S., 2019. "How does energy matter? Rural electrification, entrepreneurship, and community development in Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 88-98.
    22. Martin Koudstaal & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2015. "Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-124/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    23. Cargoët, Thibaud & Poutineau, Jean-Christophe, 2018. "Financial disruption and state dependent credit policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 249-272.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dawson, Christopher & de Meza, David Emmanuel & Henley, Andrew & Arabsheibani, Reza, 2015. "The Power of (Non) Positive Thinking: Self-Employed Pessimists Earn More than Optimists," IZA Discussion Papers 9242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. de Meza, David & Dawson, Christopher & Henley, Andrew & Arabsheibani, G. Reza, 2019. "Curb your enthusiasm: Optimistic entrepreneurs earn less," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 53-69.
    3. Odermatt, Reto & Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Stutzer, Alois, 2021. "Are newly self-employed overly optimistic about their future well-being?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Verheul, I. & Carree, M.A., 2008. "Overoptimism among Founders: The Role of Information and Motivation," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-008-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    5. Michele Dell'Era & Luca David Opromolla & Luís Santos‐Pinto, 2023. "Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 139-169, January.
    6. Dawson, Christopher & de Meza, David Emmanuel & Henley, Andrew & Arabsheibani, Reza, 2012. "Entrepreneurship: Cause or Consequence of Financial Optimism?," IZA Discussion Papers 6844, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Oliver Thomas, 2018. "Two decades of cognitive bias research in entrepreneurship: What do we know and where do we go from here?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 107-143, April.
    8. Opromolla, Luca David & Dell’Era, Michele & Santos-Pinto, Luis, 2018. "A General Equilibrium Theory of Occupational Choice under Optimistic Beliefs about Entrepreneurial Ability," CEPR Discussion Papers 13225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Nadia Simoes & Nuno Crespo & Sandrina B. Moreira, 2016. "Individual Determinants Of Self-Employment Entry: What Do We Really Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 783-806, September.
    10. Bengtsson, Ola & Ekeblom, Daniel, 2014. "The Bright but Right View? A New Type of Evidence on Entrepreneurial Optimism," Working Paper Series 1008, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    11. Åstebro, Thomas & Chen, Jing, 2014. "The entrepreneurial earnings puzzle: Mismeasurement or real?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 88-105.
    12. Bengtsson, Ola & Ekeblom, Daniel, 2014. "The Bright but Right View? New Evidence on Entrepreneurial Optimism," Working Papers 2014:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    13. Rietveld, C.A. & Groenen, P.J.F. & Koellinger, Ph.D. & van der Loos, M.J.H.M. & Thurik, A.R., 2013. "Living Forever: Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-012-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    14. Martin Koudstaal & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2015. "Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-124/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & Tina Xu, 2017. "Personality Traits of Entrepreneurs: A Review of Recent Literature," NBER Working Papers 24097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Parker, Simon C., 2013. "Do serial entrepreneurs run successively better-performing businesses?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 652-666.
    17. Roy Thurik, 2014. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-90, October.
    18. Michael Fritsch & Alina Rusakova, 2010. "Personality Traits, Self-Employment, and Professions," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 343, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    19. Kuechle, Graciela, 2011. "Persistence and heterogeneity in entrepreneurship: An evolutionary game theoretic analysis," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 458-471, July.
    20. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2018. "Selection into Entrepreneurship and Self-Employment," NBER Working Papers 25350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial optimism; expectations; self-employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:65276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.