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Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis

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  • Juan F. Jimeno

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

The Great Recession and the subsequent European crisis may have long-lasting effects on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and, hence, on macroeconomic performance over the medium and long run. Besides the fact that financial crises last longer and are succeeded by slower recoveries, and apart from the hysteresis effects that may operate after episodes of long-term unemployment, the combination of high (public and private) debt and low population and productivity growth may create significant constraints for monetary and fiscal policies. In this paper I develop an OLG model, one earlier used by Eggertsson and Mehrotra (2014) to rationalise the «secular stagnation hypothesis», to show how high debt and low population and productivity growth may condition the macroeconomic performance of some European countries over the medium and long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan F. Jimeno, 2015. "Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis," Working Papers 1522, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1522
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    Cited by:

    1. Tito Boeri & Juan F. Jimeno, 2015. "The unbearable divergence of unemployment in europe," Working Papers 1534, Banco de España.
    2. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    3. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    4. Juan F. Jimeno, 2019. "Fewer babies and more robots: economic growth in a new era of demographic and technological changes," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 93-114, June.
    5. Paolo Caro, 2018. "To be (or not to be) resilient over time: facts and causes," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 375-392, March.
    6. Albonico, Alice & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2020. "Financial crises and sudden stops: Was the European monetary union crisis different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 13-26.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural rate of interest; zero lower bound; population and productivity growth; inter-generational transfers; secular stagnation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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