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Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment: A Retro Analysis

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  • Chiara Fratto
  • Harald Uhlig

Abstract

What accounts for inflation after 2008? We use the prominent pre-crisis Smets-Wouters (2007) model to address this question. We find that due to price markup shocks alone inflation would have been 1% higher than observed and 0.5% higher that the long-run average. Their standard deviation is similar to its pre-crisis level. Price markup shocks were also responsible for the slow recovery of employment, though not for the initial drop. Monetary policy shocks predict an inflation rate 0.5% below average. Government expenditure innovations do not contribute much either to inflation or to employment dynamics.

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  • Chiara Fratto & Harald Uhlig, 2014. "Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment: A Retro Analysis," NBER Working Papers 20707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20707
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    Cited by:

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    2. Boris Chafwehé & Rigas Oikonomou & Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "(Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt," Staff Working Papers 21-5, Bank of Canada.
    3. Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2016. "The post-crisis slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 21-41.
    4. Linde, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks' Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Christian Bayer & Ralph Luetticke, 2019. "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2020. "Globalization, market structure and inflation dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Hu, Ruiyang & Zarazaga, Carlos E., 2018. "Fiscal stabilization and the credibility of the U.S. budget sequestration spending austerity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 54-66.
    8. Harald Uhlig, 2016. "Comment on "Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 183-197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Boris Chafwehe Author-Email: boris.chafwehe@uclouvain.be & Rigas Oikonomou & Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2018. "Endogenous forward guidance," Working Paper Research 354, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Glover, Andrew, 2019. "Aggregate effects of minimum wage regulation at the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 114-128.
    11. Kyle Herkenhoff & Lee Ohanian, 2019. "The Impact of Foreclosure Delay on U.S. Employment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 63-83, January.
    12. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Resolving the missing deflation puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 15-34.
    13. Mitman, Kurt & Rabinovich, Stanislav, 2019. "Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    15. Erceg, Christopher J. & Jakab, Zoltan & Lindé, Jesper, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies for the European Central Bank," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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