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Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher L. House

    (University of Michigan & NBER)

  • Christian Proebsting

    (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne)

  • Linda L. Tesar

    (University of Michigan & NBER)

Abstract

Cross-country differences in austerity, defined as government purchases below forecast, account for 75 percent of the observed cross-sectional variation in GDP in advanced economies during 2010-2014. Statistically, austerity is associated with lower GDP, lower inflation and higher net exports. A multi-country DSGE model calibrated to 29 advanced economies generates effects of austerity consistent with the data. Counterfactuals suggest that eliminating austerity would have substantially reduced output losses in Europe. Austerity was so contractionary that debt-to-GDP ratios in some countries increased as a result of endogenous reductions in GDP and tax revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher L. House & Christian Proebsting & Linda L. Tesar, 2019. "Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Working Papers 672, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:672
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    File URL: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers651-675/r672.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-08-28 20:52:59

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi & Pablo Ottonello & Ignacio Presno, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk," NBER Working Papers 26307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets, 2020. "Structural Asymmetries and Financial Imbalances in the Eurozone," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 73-102, April.
    3. Ivan Jaccard & Frank Smets, 2020. "Structural Asymmetries and Financial Imbalances in the Eurozone," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 73-102, April.
    4. Luisa Lambertini & Christian Proebsting, 2019. "Does Austerity Go Along with Internal Devaluations?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 618-656, September.
    5. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
    6. Helge Berger & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Maurice Obstfeld, 2019. "Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 657-683, September.
    7. Sebastian Gechert & Christoph Paetz & Achim Truger, 2020. "Konjunkturpaket notwendig — Rückkehr zur Schuldenbremse nicht forcieren," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 493-497, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austerity; Fiscal Policy; Multi-Country DSGE Model;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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