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The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments

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  • Òscar Jordà
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

The trilemma of international finance explains why interest rates in countries that fix their exchange rates and allow unfettered cross-border capital flows are largely outside the monetary authority’s control. Using historical panel-data since 1870 and using the trilemma mechanism to construct an external instrument for exogenous monetary policy fluctuations, we show that monetary interventions have very different causal impacts, and hence implied inflation-output trade-offs, according to whether: (1) the economy is operating above or below potential; (2) inflation is low, thereby bringing nominal rates closer to the zero lower bound; and (3) there is a credit boom in mortgage markets. We use several adjustments to account for potential spillover effects including a novel control function approach. The results have important implications for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," NBER Working Papers 23074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23074
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    2. El Herradi, Mehdi & Leroy, Aurélien, 2020. "Do rising top incomes fuel credit expansion?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    3. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    4. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment," NBER Working Papers 25366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2019. "Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history," DNB Working Papers 632, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 740, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Adam Brzezinski & Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2019. "The vagaries of the sea: evidence on the real effects of money from maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire," Working Papers 0170, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    9. Tim Willems, 2018. "What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large, Unanticipated Tightenings," IMF Working Papers 2018/211, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    11. Ahmed, Rashad, 2021. "Monetary policy spillovers under intermediate exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Inflation Globally," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 8, pages 269-316, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Apergis, Nicholas, 2021. "The role of housing market in the effectiveness of monetary policy over the Covid-19 era," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Rangan Gupta & Xin Sheng & Renee van Eyden & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "The Impact of Disaggregated Oil Shocks on State-Level Real Housing Returns of the United States: The Role of Oil Dependence," Working Papers 202096, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Lee, Sukjoon, 2020. "Liquidity Premium, Credit Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 104825, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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