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Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Estimate the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy


  • Julian di Giovanni

    (International Monetary Fund, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER)

  • Justin McCrary

    (International Monetary Fund, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER)

  • Till von Wachter

    (Columbia University and NBER)


Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority makes it difficult to estimate the effect of monetary policy interventions on output. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on quarterly real output for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. These estimates confirm a strong forward-looking bias in least squares estimates that persists even conditional on standard controls for the history of the system. Due to the potential for correlation of output shocks across countries, we interpret our estimates as lower bounds for the effect of monetary policy on real output. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian di Giovanni & Justin McCrary & Till von Wachter, 2009. "Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Estimate the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 315-331, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:91:y:2009:i:2:p:315-331

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, "undated". "The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission," Working Papers 669, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Ulrich Haskamp, 2018. "Spillovers of banking regulation: the effect of the German bank levy on the lending rates of regional banks and their local competitors," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 449-466, April.
    3. Jord�, �scar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2017. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," CEPR Discussion Papers 11801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
    5. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2016. "Ownership, interest rates and bank risk-taking in Central and Eastern European countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 308-319.
    6. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
    7. repec:arp:ijefrr:2017:p:206-217 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Andrei Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai Nayar, 2018. "Technology and Non-Technology Shocks: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement," 2018 Meeting Papers 449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Jorda, Oscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2017. "Large and State-Dependent Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments," Working Paper Series 2017-2, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Georgios Kouretas & Chris Tsoumas & Anastasios A. Drakos, 2013. "Ownership, institutions and bank risk-taking in Central and Eastern European countries," EcoMod2013 5204, EcoMod.
    11. Jorda, Oscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2018. "Inflation Globally," Working Paper Series 2018-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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