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Monitoring the world business cycle

Listed author(s):
  • Maximo Camacho

    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Jaime Martinez-Martin

    ()

    (Banco de España)

We propose a Markov-switching dynamic factor model to construct an index of global business cycle conditions, for performing short-term forecasts of quarterly world GDP growth in real time and computing real-time business cycle probabilities. To overcome the real-time forecasting challenges, the model takes into account mixed frequencies, asynchronous data publication and leading indicators. Our pseudo real-time results show that this approach provides reliable and timely inferences of quarterly world growth and of the state of the world business cycle on a monthly basis.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/15/Fich/dt1509e.pdf
File Function: First version, March 2015
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Paper provided by Banco de España & Working Papers Homepage in its series Working Papers with number 1509.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2015
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1509
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/

Web page: http://www.bde.es/bde/en/secciones/informes/Publicaciones_se/docs/
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  1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  2. Camacho, Maximo & Martinez-Martin, Jaime, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 617-625.
  3. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2007. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 850-878, April.
  4. repec:zbw:iwhdps:4-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
  6. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  7. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," Working Papers 1205, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  8. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
  9. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2013. "International business cycle co-movement and vertical specialization reconsidered in multistage Bayesian DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 109-124.
  10. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
  11. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2014. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 847-862.
  12. Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti & Nuno Garoupa, 2015. "Litigation in Spain 2001-2010: Exploring the market for legar services," Working Papers 1505, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  13. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie & Mack, Adrienne, 2015. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 170-185.
  14. Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Lindner, Axel, 2014. "Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100393, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  15. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  16. S. Borağan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 245-286.
  17. James Rossiter, 2010. "Nowcasting the Global Economy," Discussion Papers 10-12, Bank of Canada.
  18. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
  19. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  20. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-996, November.
  21. L. Ferrara & C. Marsilli, 2014. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor-augmented mixed-frequency approach," Working papers 515, Banque de France.
  22. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1998. "Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 188-201, May.
  23. Wen Yao, 2012. "International Business Cycles and Financial Frictions," Staff Working Papers 12-19, Bank of Canada.
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