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Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators

Listed author(s):
  • Katja Drechsel
  • S. Giesen
  • Axel Lindner

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.

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File URL: http://www.iwh-halle.de/d/publik/disc/4-14.pdf
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Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 4.

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Date of creation: Apr 2014
Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:4-14
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