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Public Expenditure Multipliers and Informality

Author

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  • Colombo, Emilio
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Pizzuto, Pietro
  • Tirelli, Patrizio

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of informality in affecting the magnitude of the public expenditure multiplier in a panel of 142 countries, using the local projections method. We find a strong negative relationship between the degree of informality and the size of the multiplier. This result holds irrespective of the level of economic development and institutional quality and is robust to additional country characteristics such as trade and financial openness and exchange rate regime. In a two-sector New-Keynesian model, we rationalize this result by showing that fiscal shocks raise the relative price of official goods, thereby shifting demand towards the informal sector. This reallocation effect increases with the level of informality, because a larger informal sector is associated with a stronger appreciation of relative prices in response to fiscal shocks, and thus reduces the multiplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Colombo, Emilio & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2024. "Public Expenditure Multipliers and Informality," CEPR Discussion Papers 18747, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18747
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    2. Daffeh, Abdou & Destefanis, Sergio & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo, 2024. "Fiscal multipliers in Low-income Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    3. James Sampi & Guillermo Javier Vuletin & J.T. Araujo, 2024. "Firm Size and Public Investment Multipliers : Micro Evidence from Peru," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10997, The World Bank.
    4. David Robles Ortiz & Raymundo Alexei Ambriz Torres, 2024. "Informal Employment, the Tertiary Sector, and the Gross Domestic Product: A Structural Equations Model for the Mexican Economy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Bechchani, Khalil, 2025. "Fiscal austerity and informality: Twin deficits as a cushion in Latin American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    6. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo & Valenzuela, Gabriel, 2025. "The valuation of economic recovery: The case for investment-led fiscal spending policies in open economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Emilio Colombo & Luca Michele Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2025. "Broadband Shocks, TFP Growth and Polarisation of European Firms," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2504, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    8. Emilio Colombo & Luca Michele Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2025. "Broadband Access and Markups in Europe," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2505, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    9. He, Ying & Yu, Changhua, 2025. "Fiscal multipliers, sectoral heterogeneity and reallocation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Manuel Torres Favela & Edgar Mauricio Luna Dominguez, 2024. "Exercises for Stimulating Economic Activity through Public Spending: A Case Study for Mexico," Sobre México. Revista de Economía, Sobre México. Temas en economía, vol. 1(10), pages 5-29.
    11. Bechchani, Khalil, 2025. "Austerity reexamined: Uncovering the role of the shadow economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1291-1317.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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