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Informal Employment, the Tertiary Sector, and the Gross Domestic Product: A Structural Equations Model for the Mexican Economy

Author

Listed:
  • David Robles Ortiz

    (Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Mexico City 11350, Mexico)

  • Raymundo Alexei Ambriz Torres

    (Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Mexico City 11350, Mexico)

Abstract

In Mexico, approximately 55% of the working population is employed informally, contributing 24.4% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022. This study analyzed the impact of wages, taxes, government spending, and unemployment on the informal economy of Mexico from 1980 to 2022, as well as its relationship with the tertiary sector’s contribution to the GDP. The methodology of the study was structural equation modeling. The findings of this study revealed that an increase in taxes, the unemployment rate, and the minimum wage in Mexico tends to be accompanied by a rise in informal employment. Finally, a unitary change in the latent variable informality affected the growth of the tertiary sector’s contribution to the GDP by 0.37 units.

Suggested Citation

  • David Robles Ortiz & Raymundo Alexei Ambriz Torres, 2024. "Informal Employment, the Tertiary Sector, and the Gross Domestic Product: A Structural Equations Model for the Mexican Economy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:11:p:301-:d:1514605
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Bachas & Lucie Gadenne & Anders Jensen, 2024. "Informality, Consumption Taxes, and Redistribution," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 2604-2634.
    2. Ruy Lama & Gustavo Leyva & Carlos Urrutia, 2022. "Labor Market Policies and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 300-337, June.
    3. Catalina Granda-Carvajal & Danny García-Callejas, 2023. "Informality, tax policy and the business cycle: exploring the links," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 114-166, February.
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