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Labor Market and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Latin America amid COVID: The Role of Digital-Adoption Policies

Author

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  • Alan Finkelstein Shapiro
  • Victoria Nuguer
  • Santiago Novoa Gomez

Abstract

This paper analyzes how a policy that lowers firm digital-adoption costs shapes the labor-market and economic recovery from COVID-19 in Latin America (LA) using a framework with firm entry and unemployment, where salaried firms can adopt digital technologies and the employment and firm structure embodies key features of LA economies. Using Mexico as a case study, the model replicates the response of the labor market and output at the onset of the COVID recession and in its aftermath, including the dynamics of labor-force participation and informal employment. A policy-induced permanent reduction in the cost of adopting digital technologies at the trough of the recession bolsters the recovery of GDP, total employment, and labor income, and leads to a larger expansion in the share of formal employment compared to a no-policy scenario. In the long run, the economy exhibits a reduction in total employment but higher levels of GDP and labor income, greater average firm productivity, a larger formal employment share, and a marginally lower unemployment rate. Finally, as a side effect, the policy exacerbates the differential between formal and informal labor income, both as the economy recovers from the COVID recession and in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Victoria Nuguer & Santiago Novoa Gomez, 2024. "Labor Market and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Latin America amid COVID: The Role of Digital-Adoption Policies," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 38(1), pages 161-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:38:y:2024:i:1:p:161-184.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhad019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    2. Titan Alon & Minki Kim & David Lagakos, 2020. "How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-350, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Ruy Lama & Gustavo Leyva & Carlos Urrutia, 2022. "Labor Market Policies and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 300-337, June.
    4. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Mandelman, Federico S., 2021. "Digital adoption, automation, and labor markets in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID; business cycles; self-employment and informality; unemployment and labor force participation; information and communications technologies (ICT);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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