IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/87499.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Digital Adoption, Automation, and Labor Markets in Developing and Emerging Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Federico S. Mandelman
  • Alan Finkelstein Shapiro

Abstract

We document a strong negative link between self-employment and the rate of digital adoption by firms in developing and emerging economies. No link between digital adoption and the unemployment rate is found, however. To explain this evidence, we build a general equilibrium search-and-matching model with endogenous labor force participation, self-employment, endogenous firm entry, and information-and-communications technology adoption. The main finding is that changes in the cost of technology adoption per se cannot rationalize the evidence. Instead, changes in firms' barriers to entry directly linked to the cost of technology adoption are key to explain the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico S. Mandelman & Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, 2019. "Digital Adoption, Automation, and Labor Markets in Developing and Emerging Economies," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:87499
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2019-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2019/12/23/digital-adoption-automation-labor-markets-in-developing-emerging-economies.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.29338/wp2019-22?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:wop:calsdi:97-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    3. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    4. Piotr Lewandowski & Albert Park & Simone Schotte, 2020. "The global distribution of routine and non-routine work," IBS Working Papers 06/2020, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    5. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    6. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2013. "Does Indivisible Labor Explain the Difference between Micro and Macro Elasticities? A Meta-Analysis of Extensive Margin Elasticities," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-56.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    8. Comin, D. & Hobijn, B., 2004. "Cross-country technology adoption: making the theories face the facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 39-83, January.
    9. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William, 2008. "Cyclical movements in unemployment and informality in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4648, The World Bank.
    10. Diego Comin & Martí Mestieri, 2018. "If Technology Has Arrived Everywhere, Why Has Income Diverged?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 137-178, July.
    11. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Mandelman, Federico S., 2016. "Remittances, entrepreneurship, and employment dynamics over the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 184-199.
    12. Isabel Cairo & Camilo Morales-Jimenez & Shigeru Fujita, 2019. "Elasticities of Labor Supply and Labor Force Participation Flows," 2019 Meeting Papers 1100, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Cortes, Guido Matias & Jaimovich, Nir & Siu, Henry E., 2017. "Disappearing routine jobs: Who, how, and why?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 69-87.
    14. Ms. Mitali Das & Benjamin Hilgenstock, 2018. "The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/135, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    16. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2014. "Self-employment and business cycle persistence: Does the composition of employment matter for economic recoveries?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 200-218.
    17. David M. Arseneau & Sanjay K. Chugh, 2012. "Tax Smoothing in Frictional Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 926-985.
    18. Poschke, Markus, 2019. "Wage Employment, Unemployment and Self-Employment across Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 12367, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Rogerson, Richard & Wallenius, Johanna, 2016. "Retirement, home production and labor supply elasticities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 23-34.
    20. David Autor & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 24871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Riccardo Fiorito & Giulio Zanella, 2012. "The Anatomy of the Aggregate Labor Supply Elasticity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 171-187, April.
    22. Berg, Andrew & Buffie, Edward F. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Should we fear the robot revolution? (The correct answer is yes)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 117-148.
    23. Lukas Schlogl & Andy Sumner, 2018. "The Rise of the Robot Reserve Army: Automation and the Future of Economic Development, Work, and Wages in Developing Countries," Working Papers 487, Center for Global Development.
    24. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    25. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Kyooho Kwon & Richard Rogerson, 2018. "Individual and Aggregate Labor Supply in Heterogeneous Agent Economies with Intensive and Extensive Margins," NBER Working Papers 24985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:1-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2018. "Labor force participation, interest rate shocks, and unemployment dynamics in emerging economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 346-374.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Das, Mitali & Hilgenstock, Benjamin, 2022. "The exposure to routinization: Labor market implications for developed and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 99-113.
    2. Shapiro Finkelstein, Alan & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of a Carbon Tax to Meet the U.S. Paris Agreement Target: The Role of Firm Creation and Technology Adoption," FEEM Working Papers 311095, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. SASAHARA Akira & MORI Hiroaki, 2021. "The Effects of Trade on the Gender Gaps: A Model-based Quantitative Investigation," Discussion papers 21076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Mandelman, Federico S., 2021. "Digital adoption, automation, and labor markets in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Naude, Wim, 2019. "The race against the robots and the fallacy of the giant cheesecake: Immediate and imagined impacts of artificial intelligence," MERIT Working Papers 2019-005, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Dario Cords & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Technological unemployment revisited: automation in a search and matching framework [The future of work: meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 115-135.
    4. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Cebreros Alfonso & Heffner-Rodríguez Aldo & Livas René & Puggioni Daniela, 2020. "Automation Technologies and Employment at Risk: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2020-04, Banco de México.
    6. Leyva, Gustavo & Urrutia, Carlos, 2020. "Informality, labor regulation, and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Epstein, Brendan & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2019. "Financial development, unemployment volatility, and sectoral dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 82-102.
    9. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2022. "Automation, Stagnation, And The Implications Of A Robot Tax," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 218-249, January.
    10. Tiare Rivera, 2019. "Efectos de la automatización en el empleo en Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 34(1), pages 3-49, April.
    11. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & González Gómez, Andrés, 2017. "Credit market imperfections, labor markets, and leverage dynamics in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    12. Uwe Thuemmel, 2018. "Optimal Taxation of Robots," CESifo Working Paper Series 7317, CESifo.
    13. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2023. "Automation, automatic capital returns, and the functional income distribution," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 113-135, January.
    14. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2018. "Labor force participation, interest rate shocks, and unemployment dynamics in emerging economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 346-374.
    15. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:1-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Agustin Velasquez, 2023. "Production Technology, Market Power, and the Decline of the Labor Share," IMF Working Papers 2023/032, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Hirte, Georg & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2018. "The impact of anti-congestion policies and the role of labor-supply margins," CEPIE Working Papers 04/18, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    18. Joshua Greenstein, 2020. "The Precariat Class Structure and Income Inequality among US Workers: 1980–2018," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 447-469, September.
    19. Venturini, Francesco, 2022. "Intelligent technologies and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 220-243.
    20. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    21. David Autor & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Is Automation Labor Share–Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 1-87.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    automation; self-employment; digital adoption; Information-and-telecommunications-technology capital (ICT); labor search frictions; endogenous firm entry; developing and emerging economies; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:87499. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rob Sarwark (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.