IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/308.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Technological Unemployment Revisited: Automation in a Search and Matching Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Cords, Dario
  • Prettner, Klaus

Abstract

Will low-skilled workers be replaced by automation? To answer this question, we set up a search and matching model that features two skill types of workers and includes automation capital as an additional production factor. Automation capital is a perfect substitute for low-skilled workers and an imperfect substitute for high-skilled workers. Using this type of model, we show that the accumulation of automation capital decreases the labor market tightness in the low-skilled labor market and increases the labor market tightness in the high-skilled labor market. This leads to a rising unemployment rate and falling wages of low-skilled workers and a falling unemployment rate and rising wages of high-skilled workers. In a cali- bration to German data, we show that one additional industrial robot causes a loss of 1.66 low-skilled manufacturing jobs, whereas the additional robot creates 3.42 high-skilled manufacturing jobs. Thus, overall employment even rises with automation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cords, Dario & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Technological Unemployment Revisited: Automation in a Search and Matching Framework," GLO Discussion Paper Series 308, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/191611/1/GLO-DP-0308.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George A. Akerlof & Janet L. Yellen, 1990. "The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 255-283.
    2. Lankisch, Clemens & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2017. "Robots and the skill premium: An automation-based explanation of wage inequality," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 06/2017, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    3. David Autor & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 24871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James Albrecht & Susan Vroman, 2002. "A Matching Model with Endogenous Skill Requirements," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(1), pages 283-305, February.
    5. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    6. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    9. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "Dynamically optimal R&D subsidization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 516-534.
    10. Abeliansky, Ana L. & Martínez-Zarzoso, Imnaculada & Prettner, Klaus, 2015. "The impact of 3D printing on trade and FDI," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 262, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    11. Lankisch, Clemens & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2019. "How can robots affect wage inequality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 161-169.
    12. Andri Chassambouli & Giovanni Peri, 2015. "The Labor Market Effects of Reducing the Number of Illegal Immigrants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 792-821, October.
    13. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "A Note On The Implications Of Automation For Economic Growth And The Labor Share," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1294-1301, April.
    15. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2017. "The lost race against the machine: Automation, education and inequality in an R&D-based growth model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 08-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    16. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "A note on automation, stagnation, and the implications of a robot tax," Discussion Papers 2017/17, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    17. Belan, Pascal & Carré, Martine & Gregoir, Stéphane, 2010. "Subsidizing low-skilled jobs in a dual labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 776-788, October.
    18. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayseful Sahin, 2013. "The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 1-63.
    19. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr & Giovanni Peri & Panu Poutvaara, 2018. "Immigration, Search and Redistribution: A Quantitative Assessment of Native Welfare," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1137-1188.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    21. Chassamboulli, Andri & Palivos, Theodore, 2013. "The impact of immigration on the employment and wages of native workers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 19-34.
    22. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877.
    23. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1999. "Unemployment Responses to 'Skill-Biased' Technology Shocks: The Role of Labour Market Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 242-265, April.
    24. Juan J. Dolado & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2009. "On‐the‐Job Search in a Matching Model with Heterogeneous Jobs and Workers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 200-228, January.
    25. Bloom, David E. & McKenna, Matthew J. & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Demography, Unemployment, Automation, and Digitalization: Implications for the Creation of (Decent) Jobs, 2010–2030," IZA Discussion Papers 11739, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    26. Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2015. "Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement," NBER Working Papers 20941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Robert E. Hall & Paul R. Milgrom, 2008. "The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1653-1674, September.
    28. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith Jr., 2015. "Is Piketty's "Second Law of Capitalism" Fundamental?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 725-748.
    29. Harald Fadinger & Karin Mayr, 2014. "Skill-Biased Technological Change, Unemployment, And Brain Drain," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 397-431, April.
    30. Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 18-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    31. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Seth G. Benzell & Guillermo LaGarda, 2015. "Robots: Curse or Blessing? A Basic Framework," NBER Working Papers 21091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & S�dekum, Jens & Woessner, Nicole, 2017. "German Robots - The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers," CEPR Discussion Papers 12306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Arthur J. Hosios, 1990. "On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 279-298.
    34. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii & Sergiy Stetsenko, 2016. "Taxation and Unemployment in Models with Heterogeneous Workers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 161-189, January.
    35. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    36. Melanie Arntz & Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn, 2016. "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 189, OECD Publishing.
    37. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    38. Gautier, Pieter A, 2002. "Unemployment and Search Externalities in a Model with Heterogeneous Jobs and Workers," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(273), pages 21-40, February.
    39. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    40. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    41. repec:nbr:nberch:14019 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2012. "Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery," NBER Working Papers 18629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Pieter A. Gautier & Coen N. Teulings & Aico Van Vuuren, 2010. "On-the-Job Search, Mismatch and Efficiency ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 245-272.
    44. Pei Kuang & Tong Wang, 2017. "Labor Market Dynamics With Search Frictions And Fair Wage Considerations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1336-1349, July.
    45. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2016. "The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment," NBER Working Papers 22252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Andri Chassamboulli & Theodore Palivos, 2014. "A Search‐Equilibrium Approach To The Effects Of Immigration On Labor Market Outcomes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 111-129, February.
    47. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naudé, Wim, 2019. "The Race against the Robots and the Fallacy of the Giant Cheesecake: Immediate and Imagined Impacts of Artificial Intelligence," IZA Discussion Papers 12218, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2021. "Automation Technology, Economic Growth, and Income Distribution in an Economy with Dynasties and Overlapping Generations," MPRA Paper 105446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Abeliansky, Ana & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Automation and demographic change," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 310, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Population Growth and Automation Density: Theory and CrossCountry Evidence," VID Working Papers 2102, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    5. Pi, Jiancai & Fan, Yanwei, 2021. "The impact of robots on equilibrium unemployment of unionized workers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 663-675.
    6. David E. Bloom & Victoria Y. Fan & Vadim Kufenko & Osondu Ogbuoji & Klaus Prettner & Gavin Yamey, 2021. "Going beyond GDP with a parsimonious indicator: inequality-adjusted healthy lifetime income," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 19(1), pages 127-140.
    7. Gries, Thomas & Naude, Wim, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224623, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Abeliansky, Ana & Algur, Eda & Bloom, David E. & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation Due to Global Demographic Change and Automation," IZA Discussion Papers 12962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Xiaomeng Zhang & Theodore Palivos & Xiangbo Liu, 2022. "Aging and automation in economies with search frictions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 621-642, April.
    10. Guimarães, Luis & Gil, Pedro, 2019. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," MPRA Paper 96238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2022. "Automation, Stagnation, And The Implications Of A Robot Tax," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 218-249, January.
    12. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 249-265.
    13. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Explaining the Labor Share: Automation Vs Labor Market Institutions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Dennis C. Hutschenreiter & Tommaso Santini & Eugenia Vella, 2021. "Automation and Sectoral Reallocation," DEOS Working Papers 2106, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    15. Arthur Jacobs & Freddy Heylen, 2021. "Demographic change, secular stagnation and inequality: automation as a blessing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1030, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2021. "The Race of Man and Machine: Implications of Technology When Abilities and Demand Constraints Matter," IZA Discussion Papers 14341, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Ana L. ABELIANSKY & Eda ALGUR & David E. BLOOM & Klaus PRETTNER, 2020. "The future of work: Meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 159(3), pages 285-306, September.
    18. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hagiwara, Takefumi & Pham, Huong & Fukatani, Noriki & Ogawa, Shogo & Okahara, Naoto, 2021. "How Does Automation Affect Economic Growth and Income Distribution in a Two-Class Economy?," MPRA Paper 106481, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Automation and demographic change," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168215, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2017. "The lost race against the machine: Automation, education and inequality in an R&D-based growth model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 08-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    3. Lankisch, Clemens & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2019. "How can robots affect wage inequality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 161-169.
    4. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2022. "Automation, Stagnation, And The Implications Of A Robot Tax," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 218-249, January.
    5. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 249-265.
    6. Geiger, Niels & Prettner, Klaus & Schwarzer, Johannes A., 2018. "Automatisierung, Wachstum und Ungleichheit," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 13-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    7. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "A note on automation, stagnation, and the implications of a robot tax," Discussion Papers 2017/17, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    8. Xiangbo Liu & Theodore Palivos & Xiaomeng Zhang, 2017. "Immigration, Skill Heterogeneity, And Qualification Mismatch," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1231-1264, July.
    9. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Population growth and automation density: theory and cross-country evidence," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 315, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    10. Lankisch, Clemens & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2017. "Robots and the skill premium: An automation-based explanation of wage inequality," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 29-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    11. Naude, Wim, 2019. "The race against the robots and the fallacy of the giant cheesecake: Immediate and imagined impacts of artificial intelligence," MERIT Working Papers 2019-005, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    12. Cords, Dario, 2017. "Endogenous technology, matching, and labor unions: Does low-skilled immigration affect the technological alignment of the host country?," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    13. José L. Torres & Pablo Casas, 2020. "Automation, Automatic Capital Returns, and the Functional Income Distribution," Working Papers 2020-02, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center.
    14. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Explaining the Labor Share: Automation Vs Labor Market Institutions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Ben Vermeulen & Jan Kesselhut & Andreas Pyka & Pier Paolo Saviotti, 2018. "The Impact of Automation on Employment: Just the Usual Structural Change?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-27, May.
    16. Abeliansky, Ana & Algur, Eda & Bloom, David E. & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation Due to Global Demographic Change and Automation," IZA Discussion Papers 12962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Batyra, Anna & Sneessens, Henri R., 2010. "Selective reductions in labor taxation: Labor market adjustments and macroeconomic performance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 531-543, July.
    18. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Maciej Cieślukowski & Przemysław Garsztka & Beata Zyznarska-Dworczak, 2022. "The Impact of Robotification on the Financial Situation of Microenterprises: Evidence from the Financial Services Sector in Poland," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
    20. Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2021. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 833-847.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; automation; job search; technological progress; inequality; skill premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.