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Income and Population Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Brueckner
  • Hannes Schwandt

Abstract

Do populations grow as countries become richer? In this paper we estimate the effects on population growth of shocks to national income that are plausibly exogenous and unlikely to be driven by technological change. For a panel of over 139 countries spanning the period 1960-2007 we interact changes in international oil prices with countries' average net oil export shares in GDP. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, we find that this measure of oil price induced income growth is positively associated with population growth. The IV estimates indicate that a one percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth over a ten year period increases countries' population growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Further, we find that this population effect results from both a positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on infant and child mortality.
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Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brueckner & Hannes Schwandt, 2015. "Income and Population Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 1653-1676, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:125:y:2015:i:589:p:1653-1676
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecoj.2015.125.issue-589
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    Cited by:

    1. Abebe HAILEMARIAM, 2024. "Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 31-54, March.
    2. Kenichi Kurita & Nobuaki Hori & Yuya Katafuchi, 2022. "Stigma model of welfare fraud and non‐take‐up: Theory and evidence from OECD panel data," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(3), pages 310-338, September.
    3. Dimico, Arcangelo, 2024. "The Effect of Abortion Policies on Fertility and Human Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa," QBS Working Paper Series 2024/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    4. Luis Carlos Sandoval-Herazo & Alejandro Alvarado-Lassman & José Luis Marín-Muñiz & Juan Manuel Méndez-Contreras & Sergio Aurelio Zamora-Castro, 2018. "Effects of the Use of Ornamental Plants and Different Substrates in the Removal of Wastewater Pollutants through Microcosms of Constructed Wetlands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Timothy Swanson, 2017. "Global Population Growth, Technology, And Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 973-1006, August.
    6. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Revell, Brian J., 2015. "One Man’s Meat…. 2050? Ruminations on future meat demand in the context of global warming," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204205, Agricultural Economics Society.
    8. Raghutla, Chandrashekar & Padmagirisan, P. & Sakthivel, P. & Chittedi, Krishna Reddy & Mishra, Smrutisikta, 2022. "The effect of renewable energy consumption on ecological footprint in N-11 countries: Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression Approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 125-137.
    9. Pietro Peretto & Simone Valente, 2015. "Growth on a finite planet: resources, technology and population in the long run," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 305-331, September.
    10. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    11. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.
    12. Ignacio Mauleón, 2021. "Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    13. Brueckner, Markus, 2019. "Adult mortality and urbanization: Examination of a weak connection in sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 184-198.
    14. S. Amer Ahmed & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2016. "How Significant Is Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 762-793, November.
    15. Ang, Geer & Tan, Ya & Zhai, Yingjia & Zhang, Fan & Zhang, Qinghua, 2024. "Housing wealth, fertility and children's health in China: A regression discontinuity design," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    16. Rajesh Sharma & Pradeep Kautish & D. Suresh Kumar, 2018. "Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Determinants on Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Study," Vision, , vol. 22(4), pages 405-415, December.
    17. Papagni, Erasmo, "undated". "Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 301036, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    18. Isaac Lyatuu & Georg Loss & Andrea Farnham & Mirko S Winkler & Günther Fink, 2021. "Short-term effects of national-level natural resource rents on life expectancy: A cross-country panel data analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-13, May.
    19. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Conference papers 332459, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Gradstein, Mark & Ishak, Phoebe W., 2024. "Corrigendum to Mother Africa: The long run effects of income shocks on fertility Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 220, April 2024, Pages 838-849," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 689-689.
    21. Aurora A. C. Teixeira & N. Renuga Nagarajan & Sandra T. Silva, 2017. "The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 909-934, August.
    22. Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2015. "Short and Long-Term Effects of Unemployment on Fertility," CEP Discussion Papers dp1387, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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