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How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?

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  • Ahmed, S. Amer
  • Cruz, Marcio
  • Go, Delfin S.
  • Maliszewska, Maryla
  • Osorio-Rodarte, Israel

Abstract

Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11 to 15 percent of gross domestic product volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40 to 60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become much more substantial with even better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50 percent between 2011 and 30, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22 percent by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people.

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  • Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7134, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7134
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2018. "Structural change in Ethiopia," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(S1), pages 183-200, March.
    2. Cruz, Marcio & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2018. "On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 95-106.
    3. World Bank Group, 2017. "Republic of Malawi Poverty Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 26488, The World Bank.
    4. Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2015. "The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7483, The World Bank.
    5. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Barış, Enis & Go, Delfin S. & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2018. "Assessing the global poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 148-160.
    6. Livia Elisa Ortensi & Alessio Menonna, 2017. "Migrating with Special Needs? Projections of Flows of Migrant Women with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting Toward Europe 2016–2030," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 559-583, October.
    7. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Paul, 2017. "Co-movement of Africa’s equity markets: Regional and global analysis in the frequency–time domains," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 359-380.
    8. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go,Delfin Sia & Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas, 2016. "Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7628, The World Bank.
    9. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    10. Jayne, T. S. & Holtzman, John S. & Yeboah, Felix Kwame & Anderson, Jock R. & Oehmke, James F., 2016. "Agri-Food Systems and Youth Livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Security International Development Working Papers 249276, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    11. Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thierfelder,Karen E. & Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thier, 2017. "Assessing the global economic and poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8133, The World Bank.
    12. Balistreri,Edward Jay & Maliszewska,Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Tarr,David & Yonezawa,Hidemichi, 2016. "Poverty and shared prosperity implications of deep integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7660, The World Bank.

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    Keywords

    Achieving Shared Growth; Economic Conditions and Volatility; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Growth; Emerging Markets;
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