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The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration

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  • Ziesemer, Thomas H.W.

Abstract

We show that the credit crisis of OECD countries has a negative impact on the growth of the world economy according to an error-correction model including China and Australia. This causes negative growth effects in poor developing countries. The reduced growth has a direct or indirect impact on the convergence issue, aid, remittances, labour force growth, investment and savings, net foreign debt, migration, tax revenues, public expenditure on education and literacy. We estimate dynamic equations of all these variables using dynamic panel data methods for a panel of countries with per capita income below $1200 (2000). The estimated equations are then integrated to a dynamic system of thirteen equations for thirteen variables that allows for highly non-linear baseline simulations for these open economies. Then we analyze the effects of transitional shocks as predicted by the international organizations for the OECD and world growth for 2008 and 2009. Whereas growth rates return to the baseline scenario until 2013 with overshooting for China and Australia, the level of the GDP per capita shows permanent effects, which are positive only for China. In the poor countries, investment, remittances, savings, tax revenues, public expenditure on education, all as a share of GDP as well as literacy and the GDP per capita, are reduced compared to the baseline until 2087 where our analysis ends. Investment, emigration and labour force growth start returning to baseline values between 2013 and 2017. GDP per capita and tax revenues start returning to baseline around 2040. Education variables do not return to baseline without additional effort.

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  • Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2010. "The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1245, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:5:p:1230-1245
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas H.W. ZIESEMER, 2012. "Worker remittances and government behaviour in the receiving countries," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 37-59, December.
    2. Mohammad Salahuddin & Jeff Gow, 2015. "The relationship between economic growth and remittances in the presence of cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(1), pages 207-221, January-M.
    3. Sun, Ruoyan, 2013. "Kinetics of jobs in multi-link cities with migration-driven aggregation process," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 36-41.
    4. Gani, Azmat & Al Mawali, Nasser Rashid, 2013. "Oman's trade and opportunities of integration with the Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 766-774.
    5. Gregory N. Price & Juliet U. Elu, 2014. "Does regional currency integration ameliorate global macroeconomic shocks in sub-Saharan Africa? The case of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 737-750, September.
    6. repec:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    8. repec:dgr:unumer:2008063 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Abdilahi Ali & Baris Alpaslan, 2013. "Do Migrant Remittances Complement Domestic Investment? New Evidence from Panel Cointegration," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1308, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. repec:jda:journl:vol.51:year:2017:issue1:pp:63-82 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crisis Migration Remittances Accumulation Developing country growth;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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