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The Current Account - Interest Rate Relation as a Nonlinear Phenomenon

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  • Marianna Belloc
  • Giancarlo Gandolfo

Abstract

The current account - interest rate relationship has been extensively investigated, but always assuming that it is linear. In this paper we examine the linearity versus nonlinearity issue with reference to this relationship in 11 OECD countries, and find overwhelming evidence in favour of nonlinearity. After testing alternative nonlinear specifications, we estimate a smooth transition regression model and a nonlinear VAR model. Finally, we provide a study of the innovation response analysis that shows adjustment behaviours of the two variables. The implications of the results are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Belloc & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2005. "The Current Account - Interest Rate Relation as a Nonlinear Phenomenon," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 145-166.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:2:p:145-166
    DOI: 10.1080/09638190500092986
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bierens, Herman J., 1993. "Higher-order sample autocorrelations and the unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 137-160.
    2. Baillie, Richard T., 1987. "Inference in dynamic models containing 'surprise' variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-117, May.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    5. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2003. "An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Stationarity Tests," Working Papers 485, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2010. "The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1245, September.
    2. Chu, Kam Hon, 2012. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Spurious Ratio Correlation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 292-309.
    3. Ziesemer Thomas H.W., 2009. "Worker Remittances and Growth: The Physical and Human Capital Channels," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(6), pages 743-773, December.

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