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The Current Account - Interest Rate Relation as a Nonlinear Phenomenon

  • Marianna Belloc
  • Giancarlo Gandolfo

The current account - interest rate relationship has been extensively investigated, but always assuming that it is linear. In this paper we examine the linearity versus nonlinearity issue with reference to this relationship in 11 OECD countries, and find overwhelming evidence in favour of nonlinearity. After testing alternative nonlinear specifications, we estimate a smooth transition regression model and a nonlinear VAR model. Finally, we provide a study of the innovation response analysis that shows adjustment behaviours of the two variables. The implications of the results are discussed.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 14 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 145-166

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:2:p:145-166
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Bierens, Herman J., 1993. "Higher-order sample autocorrelations and the unit root hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 137-160.
  3. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
  4. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2003. "An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Stationarity Tests," Working Papers 485, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  5. repec:att:wimass:9520 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Baillie, Richard T., 1987. "Inference in dynamic models containing 'surprise' variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-117, May.
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