IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ura/ecregj/v1y2013i4p190-199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationship between government expenditure and output in the problematic regions in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Irena Szarowska

Abstract

Economic and debt crisis has increased the attention paid to the development of government expenditure in problematic regions in the European Union. The goal of the article is to provide direct empirical evidence on cyclicality and the long-term and short-term relationship between government expenditure and output in the Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain in a period 1995–2011. We have applied Johansen cointegration test and the error correction model on adjusted annual data of GDP and government expenditure in compliance with the COFOG international standard. Research confirms procyclical development of government expenditure functions on GDP in the selected countries; this procyclicality is in line with development typical for developing countries. Moreover, output and government expenditure are cointegrated for at least six of the expenditure categories in every country and it implies a long-term relationship between government expenditure and output consistent with Wagner’s law. The values of the coefficients for the short-run relationship between expenditure and output confirm the voracity hypothesis, as they suggest that in response to a given shock to real GDP, government expenditure rises by even more in percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Irena Szarowska, 2013. "Relationship between government expenditure and output in the problematic regions in the European Union," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 190-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2013:i:4:p:190-199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economyofregion.ru/Data/Issues/ER2013/December_2013/ERDecember2013_190_199.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Serena Lamartina & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner's Law in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 149-164, May.
    3. Gavin, Michael & Hausmann, Ricardo & Perotti, Roberto & Talvi, Ernesto, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6089, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, February.
    5. Ganelli, Giovanni, 2010. "The international effects of government spending composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 631-640, May.
    6. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
    7. Mihai MutaÅŸcu & Marius MiloÅŸ, 2009. "Optimal Size Of Government Spending. The Case Of European Union Member States," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(11), pages 1-45.
    8. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    14. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
    15. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," Research Department Publications 4032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    16. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    17. Abbott, Andrew & Jones, Philip, 2011. "Procyclical government spending: Patterns of pressure and prudence in the OECD," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 230-232, June.
    18. Rajkumar, Andrew Sunil & Swaroop, Vinaya, 2008. "Public spending and outcomes: Does governance matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 96-111, April.
    19. Peacock, Alan & Scott, Alex, 2000. "The Curious Attraction of Wagner's Law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Irena Szarowská, 2012. "Public spending and Wagner's law in Central and Eastern European countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 383-390.
    21. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    22. Massimo Florio & Sara Colautti, 2005. "A logistic growth theory of public expenditures: A study of five countries over 100 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 355-393, March.
    23. repec:idb:wpaper:326 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Irena Szarowská, 2012. "Public spending and Wagner's law in Central and Eastern European countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 383-390.
    2. Szarowska, Irena, 2011. "Development and the cyclicality of government spending in the Czech Republic," MPRA Paper 32353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Teresa Famulska & Jan Kaczmarzyk & Malgorzata Grzaba, 2020. "The Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Public Social Expenditure in the EU Member States," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1136-1156.
    4. Andrew Abbott & Philip Jones, 2014. "Pressures to Increase Public Expenditure and Patterns of Procyclical Expenditure," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(2), pages 39-54, September.
    5. Abbott, Andrew & Jones, Philip, 2021. "Government response to increased demand for public services: The cyclicality of government health expenditures in the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Irena Szarowská, 2011. "Relationship between government spending and economic growth in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(7), pages 415-422.
    7. Teresa Famulska & Jan Kaczmarzyk & Malgorzata Grzaba, 2021. "The Relationship between the Structure of Tax Revenues and the Structure of Public Expenditure in the Member States of the European Union," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3B), pages 165-185.
    8. Andrew Abbott & Philip Jones, 2021. "The cyclicality of government foreign-aid expenditure: voter awareness in “good” times and in “bad”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 97-117, January.
    9. Andrew Abbott & Philip Jones, 2013. "Procyclical government spending: a public choice analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 243-258, March.
    10. Abbott, Andrew & Jones, Philip, 2014. "‘Leaning Against an Open Door’: Ideology and the cyclicality of public expenditure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 957-969.
    11. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    12. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. Haryo Kuncoro, 2014. "The cyclicality of government expenditure in developing country: the case of Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 6(1), pages 23-37, April.
    14. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2022. "Current expenditure upswings in good times and public investment downswings in bad times? New evidence from developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 118-134.
    15. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    16. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2021. "Fiscal policy and economic activity in South Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 340-358, February.
    17. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "The volatility impact of social expenditure’s cyclicality in advanced economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 26-40.
    18. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    19. Leonel Muinelo-Gallo & Ronald Miranda, 2020. "The Behaviour of Social Transfers over the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence of Uruguay," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 25-54, June.
    20. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    government expenditure; cyclicality; voracity effect; Wagner.s law; COFOG classification; long-run elasticity; short-run elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2013:i:4:p:190-199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Naydenov (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economyofregion.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.