Estimating Income Elasticity of Government Expenditures: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks
We estimate the income elasticity of government expenditures using variation in the international oil price as a plausibly exogenous source of within-country variation of countries' permanent income. Our short run elasticity estimates, between 0.25-0.50, are generally somewhat smaller than the previously obtained ones, and they, in particular, indicate that Wagner's law does not hold; long run elasticities are larger, but still smaller than unity. We also explore the correlates of the income elasticity of government spending and find no support for views that either democracy, inequality, or openness are associated with a larger elasticity. However, we find evidence consistent with "voracity" theories: cross-country differences in ethnic polarization are associated with a significantly higher oil price driven income elasticity of government spending.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Adelaide SA 5005|
Phone: (618) 8303 5540
Web page: http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999.
"An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,"
NBER Working Papers
7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tanzi,Vito & Schuknecht,Ludger, 2000.
"Public Spending in the 20th Century,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521664103, November.
- Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007.
"Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?,"
Research Department Publications
4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2013.
"Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy,"
- Marcus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Oil price shocks, income and democracy," Economics Working Papers 1351, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011.
"The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
- Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 708-722.
- Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2010. "The Futile Quest for a Grand Explanation of Long-Run Government Expenditure," Working Papers in Economics 428, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 08 Feb 2011.
- Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2010. "The Futile Quest for a Grand Explanation of Long-Run Government Expenditure," Working Paper Series 818, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 28 Oct 2010.
- Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, February.
- Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
- Tornell, Aaron & Lane, Philip R., 1998. "Are windfalls a curse?: A non-representative agent model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 83-112, February.
- Eyal Dvir & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Three Epochs of Oil," NBER Working Papers 14927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adl:wpaper:2011-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dmitriy Kvasov)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.