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Do Capital Flows Improve Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets? : The Turkish Experience

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  • HAKAN BERUMENT
  • N. NERGIZ DINCER

Abstract

This study examines the effects of capital inflows on the macroeconomic performance in an emerging, small open economy--Turkey. Using monthly data from 1992:01 to 2001:06 and a recursive vector autoregression model, we find that positive innovations in capital inflows appreciate the domestic currency, and increase output and money supply, but decrease interest rates and prices in the short run. We also find that the exchange rate regime does not influence the effects of capital flows on macroeconomic performance. Implications of the findings for policymakers are analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "Do Capital Flows Improve Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets? : The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 20-32, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:40:y:2004:i:4:p:20-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Somrasri Yupho & Xianguo Huang, 2014. "Portfolio Capital Flows in Thailand: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2S), pages 89-99, March.
    2. Deniz Ikizlerli & Numan Ülkü, 2012. "Political Risk and Foreigners' Trading: Evidence from an Emerging Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 106-121, May.
    3. Ozgur ASLAN & H. Levent KORAP, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In An Open Economy Framework: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, pages 41-66.
    4. Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macroeconomic surveillance of portfolio flows and its real effects: Malaysia's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Nuri Yildirim & Huseyin Tastan, 2012. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth across Spectral requencies: Evidence from Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 441-462, September.
    6. Josef T. Yap, 2010. "Managing Capital Flows: The Case of the Philippines," Chapters,in: Managing Capital Flows, chapter 13 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Nyang`oro Owen, 2017. "Working Paper 285 - Capital Inflows and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Paper Series 2409, African Development Bank.
    8. Guzel, Adnan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in the presence of structural shifts: The case of Japan versus the USA," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 195-202.
    9. Deniz Ikizlerli & Numan Ülkü, 2012. "Political Risk and Foreigners' Trading: Evidence from an Emerging Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 106-121, May.
    10. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Structural VAR identification of the Turkish business cycles," MPRA Paper 21971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macro-financial effects of portfolio flows: Malaysia’s experience," CAMA Working Papers 2017-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. N. Nergiz Dincer & Pinar Yasar, 2015. "Identification of Current Account Deficit: The Case of Turkey," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-87, March.
    13. Korap, Levent, 2010. "Identification of ‘pull’ & ‘push’ factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 24275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Josef T. Yap, 2008. "Managing Capital Flows : The Case of the Philippines," Development Economics Working Papers 22703, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Levent, Korap & Özgür, Aslan, 2007. "Exogenous characteristics of short-term capital flows: can they be under control? evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bilge Bakin & Gozde Gurgun, 2014. "Portfolio Investments and Asset Prices Relationship in Turkey," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0201138, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

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    Keywords

    capital flows; Turkey; vector autoregression;

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