Vulnerability to Purely Contagious Balance of Payment Crises in Emerging Economies: An Application to the Cases of Russia, Turkey, and Brazil
We explore the possible role of interdependence of expectations in emerging market economies and analyze the crisis transmission mechanism within the ”pure”contagion framework. We consider the cases of Russia, Turkey, and Brazil, and assess whether the fundamentals of these countries allowed for the possibility of ”pure”contagion e¤ects from each other. In particular, we look at Russia - Turkey and Brazil - Russia pairs in year 1997 to see whether Brazilian and the Turkish economies exhibited vulnarability to pure contagion before the 1998 Russian crisis We also repeat the same exercise with the most recent 1999 data. The rationale for choosing these pairings is the huge volume of (luggage) trade between geographical neighbors Russia and Turkey, and the similar export structures of Russia and Brazil (predominantly raw materials) which are continents apart. Our results clearly indicate vulnerability of Brazilian and Turkish economies to high probability of crisis in Russia even in the face of improving fundamentals. In isolation, Brazilian and Turkish fundamentals were not weak enough to place them in a sure-crisis situation. With the incorporation of the Russian link, the multiple equilibria setting disappeared for both countries, rendering sure-crisis as the single equilibrium solution.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||Mar 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Natuk Birkan Hall, Bebek, 34342 İstanbul|
Phone: +90 (212) 359-6505
Fax: +90 (212) 287-2453
Web page: http://www.econ.boun.edu.tr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Velasco, A. & Chang, R., 1998.
"The Asian Liquidity Crisis,"
98-27, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998.
"Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model,"
98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Paul R Masson, 1999.
"Multiple Equilibria, Contagion, and the Emerging Market Crises,"
IMF Working Papers
99/164, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
- V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1999. "Asking the right questions about the IMF," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, pages 3-26.
- Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion; Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bou:wpaper:2001/03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lutfu Gozgucu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.