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Korumasız Faiz Parite Kuramı ve 2005-2014 Dönemi Portföy Yatırımlarını Türkiye’ye Çeken Finansal Faktörlerin Tespiti

Author

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  • Hasan Hüseyin YILDIRIM

    (Balıkesir Üniversitesi, Burhaniye Uygulamalı Bilimler Yüksekokulu, Bankacılık ve Finans Bölümü, Balıkesir, Türkiye)

  • Bahadır İLDOKUZ

    (Türkiye Emlak Katılım Bankası, İstanbul, Türkiye)

Abstract

2001 krizi sonrasında dalgalı kur rejimine geçen ve kriz sonrası yapısal reformlara hız veren Türkiye, 2014 sonuna kadar artan küresel likidite ve sermaye yatırımlarından faydalanmıştır. Bu çalışmada yurtdışı faktörlerin sermaye yatırımları üzerindeki etkisinin nispeten az olduğu 2005-2014 döneminde, yurtiçi baskın finansal faktörün tespiti amaçlanmaktadır. Ülke risk priminin göstergesi olan CDS, yapılan VAR analizi sonucunda ödemeler dengesi bilançosunda yer alan portföy yükümlülükleri üzerinde en baskın faktör olmakta iken döviz kuru ise en baskın ikinci faktör olarak gözlemlenmektedir. Portföy yükümlülükleri üzerinde faiz oranı yerine döviz kurunun bu derece etkili olmasının sebepleri araştırıldığında ise; 2005-2014 yılları arasında artan cari işlemler açığı ve düşen tasarruf oranları göze çarpmaktadır. Bu durum da katma değerli üretimin Türkiye için, dış finansmana erişiminde zora girdiği son yıllarda ne derece önemli olduğunu göstermektedir.Journal: EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan Hüseyin YILDIRIM & Bahadır İLDOKUZ, 2018. "Korumasız Faiz Parite Kuramı ve 2005-2014 Dönemi Portföy Yatırımlarını Türkiye’ye Çeken Finansal Faktörlerin Tespiti," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 14(29), pages 247-268, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:ekoist:v:14:y:2018:i:29:p:247-268
    DOI: 10.26650/ekoist.2018.14.29.0003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Korumasız Faiz Parite Kuramı; Portföy Yatırımları; Faiz Oranı; Döviz Kuru; Ülke Risk Primi-CDS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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