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Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financial system - Turkey, 1989-97

Author

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  • Celasun, Oya
  • Denizer, Cevdet
  • Dong He

Abstract

Recent developments in a number of emerging economies have heightened interest in the relationship between macroeconomic management and financial regulation, in an environment of open capital accounts and large-scale movements of private capital. The authors analyze the Turkish experience with capital flows in a macro-economy characterized by chronically high inflation and fiscal deficits. They study the relationship between capital flows, macroeconomic management, and vulnerability in the financial system. Their analysis highlights the importance of fiscal policy in an era of large capital flows. Fiscal imbalances contributed both to real exchange rate appreciation and high real interest rates in Turkey. The high interest rates the government must pay on domestic debt have become one of the key issues of Turkey's macroeconomic management. Only by reducing its interest expenses can fiscal deficits be reduced and greater stability be achieved. The Turkishbanking system, in becoming increasingly integrated with international financial markets, has become vulnerable to shifts in market confidence. Banks borrowed abroad in response to macroeconomic imbalances to benefit from high interest rates on domestic loans and government paper. In the process, the banks have exposed themselves to interest rate risk, to foreign-exchange risk, and to large credit risks. To reduce the Turkish economy's vulnerability to external shocks, financial regulation must be strengthened simultaneously with the achievement of macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Celasun, Oya & Denizer, Cevdet & Dong He, 1999. "Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financial system - Turkey, 1989-97," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2141, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ozgur ASLAN & H. Levent KORAP, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In An Open Economy Framework: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, May.
    2. Süleyman DEĞİRMEN & Filiz ELMAS, 2008. "Türkiye’de Faiz Ve Kur Politikalarının İhracat Üzerindeki Etkisi," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 19(69), pages 47-66.
    3. Suheyla Ozyildirim & Zeynep Onder, 2008. "Banking Activities and Local Output Growth: Does Distance from Centre Matter?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 229-244.
    4. Layal Mansour, 2012. "Hoarding of International Reserves and Sterilization in Dollarized and Indebted Countries : an effective monetary policy?," Working Papers 1208, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    5. Igor Ljubaj & Ana Martinis & Marko Mrkalj, 2010. "Capital Inflows and Efficiency of Sterilisation – Estimation of Sterilisation and Offset Coefficients," Working Papers 24, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    6. Petroulas, Pavlos, 2004. "Short-Term Capital Flows and Growth in Developed and Emerging Markets Pavlos," Research Papers in Economics 2004:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.

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