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Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment - Consequences of EMU Enlargement

  • Michal Brzozowski

The aim of the paper is to analyze theoretically and empirically the likely impact of the reduction in exchange rate uncertainty, due to the EMU accession, on the intensity of FDI inflow into candidate countries. Theoretical models give an ambiguous picture of how exchange rate uncertainty and volatility affect direction and magnitude of FDI inflows. The main contribution of this paper is in finding that exchange rate uncertainty and volatility may negatively influence the decision to locate investment in transition and accession countries. Nominal exchange rate uncertainty seems to particularly hamper FDI inflows in accession countries. The key finding of this paper is that euro adoption is likely to exert a positive influence on FDI inflows in accession countries.

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Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0258.

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Length: 26 Pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0258
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  1. Laura Resmini, 1999. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment into the CEECs: New Evidence from Sectoral Patterns," LICOS Discussion Papers 8399, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  2. Pietro Garibaldi & Nada Mora & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "What Moves Capital to Transition Economies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 6.
  3. Darby, Julia & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ireland, Jonathan & Piscitelli, Laura, 1998. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Alan A. Bevan & Saul Estrin, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 342, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Sung, Hongmo & Lapan, Harvey E, 2000. "Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange-Rate Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(2), pages 411-23, May.
  6. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  7. Noorbakhsh, Farhad & Paloni, Alberto & Youssef, Ali, 2001. "Human Capital and FDI Inflows to Developing Countries: New Empirical Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1593-1610, September.
  8. Bevan, Alan & Estrin, Saul, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  10. Gastanaga, Victor M. & Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Pashamova, Bistra, 1998. "Host Country Reforms and FDI Inflows: How Much Difference do they Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1299-1314, July.
  11. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2001. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross-Country Regressions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 89-113.
  12. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
  13. Benassy-Quere, AgnEs & Fontagne, Lionel & LahrEche-Revil, Amina, 2001. "Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 178-198, June.
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