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Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

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  • Sung, Hongmo
  • Lapan, Harvey E.

Abstract

We investigate how exchange-rate uncertainty affects the foreign direct investment decision of a risk-neutral multinational firm (MNF). We assume the firm can open plants, each with decreasing average costs, in two different countries. Under certainty, the MNF would open only one plant. We demonstrate that with sufficient exchange-rate volatility, the firm can increase expected profits by opening several plants. We also show that if the MNF faces a competitor in the foreign market, the exchange risk, by inducing the MNF to open plants in both markets, may prevent entry by the local competitor.

Suggested Citation

  • Sung, Hongmo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2000. "Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1335, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:1335
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    Cited by:

    1. Adugna Lemi & Sisay Asefa, 2009. "Differential Impacts of Economic Volatility and Governance on Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of US Multinationals in Africa," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 367-395.
    2. Nigel Pain & Desirée Van Welsum, 2003. "Untying The Gordian Knot: The Multiple Links Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 823-846, December.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2004. "The merits of horizontal versus vertical FDI in the presence of uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 125-148, January.
    4. Lochner, Stefan & Broll, Udo, 2007. "German Foreign Direct Investment and Wages," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 10/07, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    5. Anthony Creane & Kaz Miyagiwa, 2010. "Exporting Versus Foreign Direct Investment: Learning through Propinquity," Emory Economics 1010, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    6. Stephen Pavelin & Lynda A. Porter, 2011. "Race-to-the-Bottom or -Top at Home or Abroad: Health and Safety Standards and the Multinational Firm," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(3), pages 289-311.
    7. Aray, Henry & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2010. "Going multinational under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1171-1191, October.
    8. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    9. Henry Aray, 2007. "International Monopoly under Uncertainty," ThE Papers 07/05, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    10. Michal Brzozowski, 2006. "Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment: Consequences of EMU Enlargement," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 5-24, February.
    11. Demir, Firat, 2013. "Growth under exchange rate volatility: Does access to foreign or domestic equity markets matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 74-88.
    12. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
    13. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    14. Anthony Creane & Kaz Miyagiwa, 2007. "Export, Foreign Direct Investment, and Joint Ventures: Learning the Rival's Costs through Propinquity," Emory Economics 0710, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    15. Guo, Yan, 2013. "Strategic trade policy, cost uncertainty and FDI determinants," ISU General Staff Papers 201301010800004464, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Katheryn Russ, 2012. "Exchange rate volatility and first-time entry by multinational firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(2), pages 269-295, June.
    17. Zhang, Yijing & Toppinen, Anne & Uusivuori, Jussi, 2014. "Internationalization of the forest products industry: A synthesis of literature and implications for future research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 8-16.
    18. Russ, Katheryn, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9xr4f238, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    19. Arbeláez, Harvey & Ruiz, Isabel, 2013. "Macroeconomic antecedents to U.S. investment in Latin America," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 439-447.
    20. Dewit, Gerda & Leahy, Dermot & Montagna, Catia, 2012. "Employment Protection, Flexibility and Firms’ Strategic Location Decisions under Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-24, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    21. Gerda Dewit & Dermot Leahy & Catia Montagna, 2003. "Employment Protection and Globalisation in Dynamic Oligopoly," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 137, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    22. Yu, Chia-Feng & Chang, Ta-Cheng & Fan, Chinn-Ping, 2007. "FDI timing: Entry cost subsidy versus tax rate reduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 262-271, March.
    23. Hisham Foad, 2005. "Currency Unions, Options, and Foreign Direct Investment," Emory Economics 0516, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    24. Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., . "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    25. Gerda Dewit & Dermot Leahy & Catia Montagna, 2013. "Employment Protection, Flexibility and Firms' Strategic Location Decisions under Uncertainty," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 441-474, July.

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