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Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment: Consequences of EMU Enlargement

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  • MICHAL BRZOZOWSKI

Abstract

This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the likely impact of the reduction in exchange rate uncertainty, due to European Monetary Union accession, on the intensity of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow into candidate countries. Theoretical models give an ambiguous picture of how exchange rate uncertainty and volatility affect the direction and magnitude of such inflows. This paper finds that exchange rate uncertainty and volatility--and nominal exchange rate uncertainty in particular--may negatively influence the decision to locate investment in transition and accession countries. Euro adoption, on the other hand, is likely to positively influence FDI inflows in accession countries.

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  • Michal Brzozowski, 2006. "Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment: Consequences of EMU Enlargement," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 5-24, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:44:y:2006:i:1:p:5-24
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    8. Noorbakhsh, Farhad & Paloni, Alberto & Youssef, Ali, 2001. "Human Capital and FDI Inflows to Developing Countries: New Empirical Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1593-1610, September.
    9. Goldberg, Linda S & Kolstad, Charles D, 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-873, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Axarloglou, Kostas & Kouvelis, Panos, 2007. "Hysteresis in adjusting the ownership structure of foreign subsidiaries," International Business Review, Elsevier, pages 494-506.
    2. Onay, Ceylan, 2006. "A Co-integration Analysis Approach to European Union Integration: The Case of Acceding and Candidate Countries," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 10, September.
    3. Gregory Clare & Ira N. Gang, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Political Risks, Again," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 46-58.
    4. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2015. "The adjustment of plant-level investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia: do the size and the ownership structure matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2487-2505.
    5. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:12:p:2771-2831 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marek Dabrowski, 2005. "A Strategy for EMU Enlargement," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0290, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Piotr Mielus, 2012. "Market Measures of Convergence in Central & Eastern Europe Emerging Markets in the Period of Turbulences on the Financial Market," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 31.
    8. Arbeláez, Harvey & Ruiz, Isabel, 2013. "Macroeconomic antecedents to U.S. investment in Latin America," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 439-447.
    9. Gregory Clare & Ira N. Gang, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Political Risks, Again," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 46-58, May.
    10. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kumo, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis," CEI Working Paper Series 2016-9, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., . "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    12. Tokunaga, Masahiro & Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2014. "Transition and FDI: A Meta-Analysis of the FDI Determinants in Transition Economies," RRC Working Paper Series 47, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    13. Gérard Duchêne & Mathilde Maurel & Boris Najman, 2004. "Élargissement de lUnion européenne : présentation générale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 1-16.

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